Ag Weather Forum

One Of Those Years

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , Ag Meteorologist Emeritus
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One of the key points I tried to bring out during DTN market and weather presentations at the summer farm shows this year--specifically, Farm Fest in Minnesota; the Farm Progress Show in Iowa; and Husker Harvest Days in Nebraska--was the lack of widespread calamitous weather in the major northern hemisphere crop regions in 2014. Were there some problems? Yes, of course there were. Severe and violent storms tore through portions of the central U.S., specifically the western Corn Belt, from May until early July. Heavy rain lashed the northern Plains and the upper MIdwest. The U.S. southern Plains had very dry conditions through mid to late spring, followed by moderate to locally-heavy rain.There was some heavy, flooding rain in Europe. Portions of north-central China had very dry conditions (and continue to do so). India's monsoon went through a fitful early portion of its annual cycle. And, in the Canadian Prairies, cool temperatures and heavy rains caused a loss of acreage because of ponding out and flooding.

However, temperatures remained mostly very cool conditions during July, and then stayed mild enough to limit frost threats during September--a phasing which not only reduced sress on crops during their reproductive phases, but also allowed for an extended stretch of grain fill during September. In contrast to years such as 2010 when severe heat and drought occurred in Russia; 2011, featuring drought in the southern Plains; and 2012, when the Midwest drought slashed corn production, grain-producing area weather this year was by and large favorable.

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Are there problem areas? Yes--with California's historic drought front and center. But in the grain business, this has been a year when, as the chief executive of Deere said in a Barron's article this week--this year's extreme weather event can be called "It's great weather everywhere around the world." We're seeing the results in production expectation, and of course in how markets have behaved with a sustained move downward.

Bryce

Twitter--@BAndersonDTN

(ES/AG/CZ)

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