Ag Weather Forum

Pacific SOI Points Toward El Nino

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , Ag Meteorologist Emeritus
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We are seeing some interesting developments in the Pacific Ocean. The Pacific Ocean Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) value reached a reading of -8.2 on the 90-day moving average this week--on Monday, September 22nd. That is a notable value, because research done by Iowa State University has identified the 90-day SOI reading of -8.0 or lower as an indicator of sufficient El Nino intensity to be an influencing factor in the weather patterns over the interior U.S. As a corollary, a 90-day reading of +8.0 or higher is an indicator of La Nina influence for the interior U.S.

What does an El Nino during the fall season mean for harvest is the big question. And, you probably won't like the answer: a fall season with El Nino in place has a higher potential for wetter conditions.

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Is there a recent year when this type of pattern was in place, you ask. Yes, there was--back in 2009, five years ago. I don't have to go into any greater detail, because we know how slow and drawn-out harvest was during that season; it's well-documented that the final fields of corn did not get combined until spring 2010.

So, bottom line on the Australia SOI 90-day reading of -8.2 is, the chances for a slower harvest just increased.

Bryce

Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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