Ag Weather Forum

Notable Early Frost Threat Building

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , Ag Meteorologist Emeritus
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The U.S. GFS forecast model has been consistent over the past several presentations in calling for freezing temperatures during the Friday Sept 12-Saturday Sept 13 weekend, and continues to do so as of Saturday morning Sept 6.

Temperatures of 32 Fahrenheit (0 degrees Celsius) are indicated by the Saturday GFS model run for portions of eastern South Dakota along with a swath of northern through south-central Minnesota on Friday morning Sept 12. During the overnight hours into 1 a.m. Saturday Sept 13, that 32-degree area moves eastward to take in much of the eastern half of Minnesota, the western half of Wisconsin, and the northeastern quarter of Iowa. Then, by 7 A.M. Central time Saturday the 13th--that 32-degree F area extends farther south to cover the entire eastern half of Iowa along with northwestern Illinois.

There is a good portion of the western and northern Corn Belt in line for an early and premature end to the growing season with this presentation.

Bryce

Twitter @BAndersonDTN

(CZ)

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Comments

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andrew mohlman
9/12/2014 | 9:53 PM CDT
Brandon Boy Brandon after 25 years of growing and selling crops my marketing was poor 3 of 25 I have seen this before you do not seem to account for inflated cost of inputs you are a consumer not a grower I believe record consumption if you cant make this out or read it to bad just another ignorant farmer to you history is what it is past
Brandon Butler
9/12/2014 | 1:55 PM CDT
Oh, and by the way, take a look at historical carryout to use ratios with their corresponding prices. The price is right where it should be.
Brandon Butler
9/12/2014 | 1:48 PM CDT
Blame others if it works for you. (At the base of it, I doubt it is working for you, but keep repeating the same things, expecting different results!) While you are at it, maybe you can blame your teachers in school that didn't teach you how to use punctuation, write in complete sentences, or actually have a coherent thought.
andrew mohlman
9/12/2014 | 9:08 AM CDT
Wish it was that simple brandon we are being preyed on by capitalist.Actual carryover is not as great as the price reduction. Farmers all ran to the door to sell or other options that tied them down at least I have some eye sight not a sack over my head freeze would shut us all up
KEITH PEARSON
9/11/2014 | 12:25 PM CDT
I live in west central Wis & just seen the weekend weather forecast & it doesn't look good If it clears off friday nite. Could be a possible freeze. It is snowing in S Dakota & Nebraska rite now.
Brandon Butler
9/11/2014 | 11:45 AM CDT
Economic law....abnormal returns return to normal. In the long run, it doesn't have anything to do with manipulation or some dreamt up scheme and device. Markets have gone up on shortages and down on over-production for as long as human beings have produced and traded with one another. Simple supply and demand. Those fortunate enough to not get glassy eyed when corn was 7, realizing the risk was there for overproduction VS. THE CURRENT DEMAND STRUCTURE sold it, and are still profiting. BTW, there never was a time when the 2014-15 corn crop could have been sold for 7.
MARK & LEA NOWAK
9/11/2014 | 9:33 AM CDT
Here in S.C Minnesota near the Iowa border it's 45 degrees for a morning low. The local forecast for the coolest morning is Saturday in the mid 30's. So I suspect there will be some low land patchy frost. If so our crops will be spared a damaging freeze. We will stay in touch and report as it happens.
Bryce Anderson
9/11/2014 | 6:24 AM CDT
Back on topic--a freeze warning is in effect for the western half of North Dakota for Friday morning September 12.
andrew mohlman
9/10/2014 | 9:52 PM CDT
I do have a problem with you changing content of comment All opinions need heard not censored you have Issues when You dont like what you read.Put it back or take it off not hiding in email lot of harsh things in world comment was not that bad. $7.25 $13. lows would be best for all consumption is high waste will happen
Bryce Anderson
9/10/2014 | 3:18 PM CDT
I just edited a blog comment that included some harsh comment about an individual and about my company. We can disagree without calling names or impugning others. If you have an issue with that, you may e-mail me directly at bryce.anderson@dtn.com.
GWL 61
9/10/2014 | 1:26 PM CDT
Depends too on location and the basis, the slow rail service is going to be killer around here. Wheat on ground elevators full. No good at all. Oil boom in ND taking up trains, that's where there money is.
andrew mohlman
9/10/2014 | 11:04 AM CDT
Sorry a total year of production corn $ 7.25 beans $ 13.00 looks a lot better to me part of problem of unstable market. Prices can explode up just as hard as down on no one is 100% correct
MARK & LEA NOWAK
9/10/2014 | 8:19 AM CDT
It sounds like there is some sour grapes for those that missed marketing this big crop at profitable prices. The reason I love DTN is for the vast amount of information available to make our management decisions. Most of the weather outlook folks going all the way back to last January predicted a good growing season with no one seeing drought or heat. They were 100% correct. An above average crop was then advised. So I sold using futures, HTA's and put options locking in $5 corn and $12+ soybeans on all of my production plus a bunch of 2015 as well. So once I deliver , I don't care who owns it. I know some marketing services that told farmers not to sell as the market was wrong. They are the ones that should be discredited; not the market for doing it's job. The economic law of supply and demand will never be repealed.
Lori Olson
9/9/2014 | 7:30 PM CDT
Every thing is bearish right now until the right people own it
andrew mohlman
9/9/2014 | 8:49 AM CDT
Ideal conditions do not occur earth is not a green house. market manipulates farmers to sell to cheap watch them ignore it till it meets there greedy needs.This crop was called huge before it was in ground. biggest ripoff in history of farmers.Those calling for a 2 in front of corn are economic terrorist hopefully it comes back to them.
GWL 61
9/8/2014 | 9:17 AM CDT
Early frost has happened before. I suppose we are due for one, been many years since it has happened. Won't have ideal conditions year after year. Could get early snow too, with many acres left in field.
andrew mohlman
9/8/2014 | 8:10 AM CDT
I am sure that wont be traded like the giant crop talk