Ag Weather Forum

I had the chance to be on the WIBW radio, Topeka half-hour ag news program, "Ag Issues" Monday morning. The show's host, WIBW farm director Kelly Lenz, is a long-time friend and colleague. In preparation for our discussion, Kelly asked me to put together some question ideas, and I responded in detail--so much so, in fact, that I thought it was worth sending out as a blog item. So, here are my thoughts on the ag weather and crop scene as of the end of April 2013:

1) The wheat situation is front and center with the tour this week. One feature that is really unusual is that April has been so cold that progress has been held back--so I don’t know what the tour will really be able to ascertain in terms of crop potential. But it doesn't look good. Informa projects that 7.4 million acres of winter wheat will be abandoned this year and considering how stressful it's been this spring that number may actually be higher. Dodge City did have a half inch rain Friday but considering how dry it's been up to this point the impact of that may not be too extensive.

The forecast for this week has another round of showers on Wednesday but that is accompanied by another cold shot.

2) Speaking of which--there have been some gigantic temperature swings during April in southwestern Kansas. Huge changes from very warm to very cold for the season. I think you can attribute this in part to the impact of drought--not entirely but certainly a part. Drier soils are subject to greater intraday temperature swings (a feature which is very common in desert climates). So, the dryness has helped to make these temperature swings even greater.

3) Corn Belt--there was some planting in eastern Nebr this weekend and quite likely may have also occurred in eastern Kansas. Precip has been very good recently as you know--Topeka has had over 3" rain in April and we've had 5+ here in Omaha. Actually, this recent turn of events was better in the western versus eastern Corn Belt. Bloomington IL has had over 6", Peoria 7.75", Cedar Rapids and Iowa City both around 8.5", Chicago almost 8.7" (just this month. Since March 1 Chi has had over 10"). So, there is PLENTY of water for the kind of flooding that's been going on. And, the next week-10 days don't offer much of a change for the better in that wet and cool pattern. The eastern Belt will continue to be delayed on corn planting.

4) The cause of this situation--blocking high pressure in the far northern latitudes that has been a major upper-air feature pretty much since mid-February. That high-latitude blocking kinks up the northern jet stream and forces it farther south--which has helped to keep these very cool to cold incidents just coming and coming. There are a lot of similarities on that side of things to what we saw 2 years ago in 2011, when planting was delayed in the eastern Corn Belt too.

5) Has there been some drought relief? Yes there has--unfortunately not for everyone, because the southwestern Plains region has been bypassed repeatedly by moisture. But in the Midwest and the central Plains, there definitely has been a recharge of soil moisture supplies. However--I am not ready to take it for granted that this moisture improvement is guaranteed for the rest of the season. We have seen a notable "crowding" of rainfall into the spring season, as well as in heavier storm events--and this facet, along with the tendency for summertime temperatures to be warmer at night and not that beneficial for crop development, still have me cautious regarding this growing season--especially with what looks to be a late start in many areas.

6) Farther north--flooding in North Dakota and the Canadian Prairies can't be ignored. Much of the expected corn acreage increase that USDA called for this season is in the Dakotas--and with the flooding and wet ground they are going to be delayed in their season as well.

Bryce

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