Ag Weather Forum

Temperatures across the Canadian Prairies continue to average about a month behind schedule, meaning readings are closer to levels expected during early and mid-March rather than early or mid-April. So far during April, temperatures are averaging from between 4 and 8 degrees C (8 to 15 degrees F) below normal across Alberta.

Further east it has been even colder. Temperatures from Saskatchewan to Manitoba have been averaging from between 6 and 10 degrees C (10 to 18 F) below normal with a good number of the days not even seeing afternoon readings reaching 0 C (32 F). The low temperatures are preserving an already deep snow cover across the region with the greatest snow depths remaining across Saskatchewan and Manitoba where 25 to 65 cm (10 to 26 inches) of snow remains. Lesser amounts cover Alberta where most of the south has seen bare ground appear during the recent couple of weeks.

The snow cover also contains lots of water. Snow water equivalent amounts of 70 to 120 mm (2.75 to 4.75 inches) are contained with the snow cover from northern Alberta to central and northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The threat for river, stream and lowland flooding remains very high during the coming weeks when this snow melts. Still unknown is how quickly the snow will melt and if mild temperatures and rain will occur during the meltdown or if it is dry while the snow cover melts. These still unknown weather conditions will affect how much flooding actually occurs.

We may also add a little more snow to the snow cover during the next week or so with a moderate snowfall expected for many areas this weekend into Monday. Low temperatures are forecast to continue through next week with the melting potential expected to remain low. But later this month, if temperatures were to turn very mild quickly, we could see a rapid melt develop. Current computer model forecasts do not forecast a big warm-up and, in fact, tend to keep temperatures on the cold side of normal for the remainder of April and into May.

The late start to spring and deep snow cover across many areas will continue to increase concerns for a late start to spring field work and planting. Weather conditions during the next few weeks will be critical in determining how fast the Prairies crop region shifts out of winter and into the spring planting season. It is appearing quite likely that this crop season is going to begin later than last year and further complications from potential flooding can't be ruled out.

Doug Webster can be reached at doug.webster@telventdtn.com

(CZ/ES)