Ag Weather Forum

After a very wet spring across most of the major corn and soybean areas of central Argentina which caused planting delays, we have finallly seen a shift in the wet pattern to a drier trend. This is actually quite favorable at the present time as it allows any remaining planting to take place and provides plenty of sunshine for developing crops under favorable soil moisture conditions.

However, in just the past few days we have have seen some hot weather develop in some of the southern and western portions of the belt with some areas in parts of Buenos Aires and La Pampa now in need of some rain. The outlook for the next 7-10 days looks fairly dry although some scattered light showers with locally heavier are possible later in the week.

It is not unusual to see a reversal from a wet spring to a drier summer pattern. This drier pattern may also be supported by a shift in the Southern o

Oscillation Index (SOI) in the Pacific from what I would classify as the El Nino side of normal during the past few weeks to the La Nina side of normal during the next few weeks.

Due to the late plantihng of corn and soybeans in Argentina we still have the critical corn pollination and soybean pod filling stages ahead of us possibly under less-than-favorable conditions.

In Brazil,a drier weather pattern is developing in Rio Grande do Sul, similar to central Argentina. This area often follows the weather patterns of central Argentina. Temperatures have not turned hot yet but we expect them to this week.

Farther to the north across Parana and Mato Grosso, conditions are expected to remain favorable for soybeans during the next 7 days with episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms especially over northern Parana and Mato Grosso.

Here in the U.S., there are no major changes to the dry weather pattern in the Plains and western Midwest. We saw a little relief during the past few weeks as the southern branch of the jet stream became more active. However, that round of stormier conditions was not enough to significantly change the soil moisture profiles in these areas.

It looks like the weather patterns will be even drier across much of the central U.S. during the next 10 days as the southern branch off the jet stream weakens and the northern branch becomes dominant. The configuration of this jet pattern will feature high pressure (ridge) in the western U.S and a trough (low pressure) in the east, which will prevent any significant movement of Gulf of Mexico moisture into the central U.S.

This remains a very concerning pattern for winter wheat in the central and southern plains and for spring planting in the Plains and western Midwest. We do note that we have seen a significant improvement in the soil moisture profiles for the southern and eastern Midwest and Delta states, which bodes well for the soft wheat crop and for spring planting.

Mike