Ag Weather Forum
Bryce Anderson DTN Ag Meteorologist and DTN Analyst

Friday 07/30/10
A Late-Summer Soybean Issue

Finishing out July, we have a real have and have-not rainfall situation north to south in the central U.S.

The north certainly stays wet. Moderate to locally heavy rain will cover much of the northern Midwest Friday through the weekend. Rainfall estimates Thursday night into Friday totaled around 10 inches in east-central South Dakota and over 6 inches in northwestern Iowa. The rest of the primary U.S. crop areas will be dry.

Temperatures will be seasonal in the northern and eastern Corn Belt, very warm in the western Corn Belt, and in the southern areas. We’ll see highs topping 100 in the Delta. Conditions are favorable for most of the Midwest, but the southern Midwest on south through the Delta has a stressful round of heat going into the weekend.

The Informa group is taking notice of this threat to soybean production and supply as well. Here's how that group describes the situation:

"There is now much less cushion against a yield shortfall in the US or South America amid an emerging La Nina that tends to be a drag on yields...the risk premium in new-crop soybean futures is none too large as the crop moves into the critical month of August."

Bryce

I can be found on Twitter at bryceadtnwx.
Posted at 9:38AM CDT 07/30/10 by Bryce Anderson
Comments (9)
Bulls be careful- there is potential for 70 bu+ soybeans in the sharp looking/ full sub soil fields in the north.
Posted by MARK & LEA NOWAK at 7:19PM CDT 07/30/10
BEARS be careful- there is potential for 20 bu soybeans in AND 100 bu corn in the HOT , DRY, no moisture areas of the north and east corn belt
Posted by Tom Keller at 5:54AM CDT 08/02/10
Thanks for the comments on both sides. I think this very well illustrates the sharp divide in terms of rainfall that we've seen this season. Also, John Sanow and I will discuss these market and weather issues in detail at Farm Fest in Minnesota tomorrow, Tuesday August 3, at 9 a.m. in the forum tent at the show. If you're planning to go to Farm Fest I hope you'll stop in.
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 6:38AM CDT 08/02/10
Corn crop condtions rating is just out by USDA has the crop at 71% G-Ex. History says anytime the crop is rated 65% G-Ex or better on August 1, national yield exceeds trend line. So that gives us a very high probability that the crop will be at least 163.5 bu/acre. That would produce enough corn for a 13.2 billion crop and probably justify the rally we've had but would cap any run away prices some are predicting (or hoping). P.S. -maturity is also nicely ahead of the 5 year average so the crop is closer to being made than normal.
Posted by MARK & LEA NOWAK at 3:54PM CDT 08/02/10
I know that in many years my crops were dry but the market only cared about the majority. That makes me glad that I am in the majority this year, 65%G-Ex.. I also know that going into August, the best way to finish a soybean crop in Northern Illinois was for a hurricane to pump moist air into the midwest. That usually mean landfall west of the Mississippi river/New orleans. Sorry Texas, someones loss is usually someone else's gain. Cap that well in the gulf and then turn the tropical storms loose on Louisiana and Mississippi and we will break this rally.
Posted by Joe Farmer at 9:31PM CDT 08/02/10
Joe Farmer, be careful what you wish for. Hurricane Ike in 2008 gave us 11" of rain in NW IN. You can have it this time. We had more damage than my brother who lives in houston where it hit.
Posted by Mark KIngma at 6:19AM CDT 08/03/10
Thanks for the comments. I was at Farm Fest in Minnesota earlier Tuesday but will get back into blog action today.
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 5:15AM CDT 08/04/10
Bryce, why is the rains breaking up as they cross Indiana? seems to be alot of water to the west in Illinois and Iowa ?
Posted by Tom Keller at 7:07AM CDT 08/04/10
Tom, the Iowa and Illinois rains are breaking up when the systems cross into Indiana because the hot upper-air ridge that's smothering areas farther south is also nosing northeast into Indiana and Ohio as well. Thus, the storms fizzle out when they run into the ridge.
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 9:52AM CDT 08/04/10
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