As the corn crop moves into or is already in the main pollintion period in the Midwest it appears that the weather pattern will in general continue to cooperate. There are of course a some exceptions in Iowa, Minnesota and Nebraska where excessive rains during the month of June caused problems with ponding in fields, poor crop development and the need for some replanting. Based on the latest crop reports some of these problems continue, especially in Iowa with reports of extremely variable crop conditions and many fields having sections with crop loss that will likely not be replanted and with concerns of shallow root systems due to the wetness. However in areas not affected by flooding conditions look very good. This is especially the case as you cross the Mississippi River into Ilinois where the crop has benefitted from an early planting and favorable weather for crop development. The corn crop is currently 72 percent pollinated through July 11. This compares to only 10 percent last year and the normal of 41 percent. Most of the Illinois crop should be pollinated by the end of this week. As you head further east into Indiana and Ohio conditions have actually become unfavorably dry in some areas as this region has been on the western edge of the hot, dry weather that has impacted the Midwest during the past 7-10 days.

As we look at the model guidance during the next 10 days we see nothing of real concern as it regards the Midwest. In general adequate rainfall will continue to support pollinating corn and flowering soybeans while likely featuring less in the way of excessive rainfall in the western Midwest. Both the US and European models hint at times that some ridging will try to build into the Midwest (especially the European model) in the 6-10 day period. However we continue to feel that the models have been overforecasting this tendency and even if it were to happen would likely not last long enough to cause any significant crop damage.

Mike