The major corn and soybean growing areas of northeast and central China had a fairly dry month of June. Rainfall levels averaged less than 50 percent of normal in many areas and less then 25 percent of normal in a fairly large part of northeast China and a somewhat smaller part of central China. We also had periods of some fairly hot weather, in the north earlier in the period and in southern areas more recently. This dry and some time hot weather during June came after a wet and sometimes fairly cool month of May. Cool, wet weather during May delayed the early planting effort so that when it turned dry and warm to hot during June the impact was to germination and early development of crops.

After the first week of July we have had a shift to somewhat more rainfall in the north and to less hot weather. This helps ease stress to developing corn and soybeans from Liaoning to Heilongjiang. However, more rain is still needed. The short range forecast does call for scattered showers in the region during the next 3-5 days with variable temperatures, so conditions for these crops should continue to improve. The long range outlook is a little more uncertain. I have seen signs this week of a return to hot dry weather for later next week but I have also seen signs that this hot, dry period would be short lived. At this time I would tend to favor some combination of the two weather patterns. I would expect to see periods of hot weather mixed with periods of more normal temperatures and rainfall. This is not ideal weather for corn or soybeans but it should not be that bad either.

The central China region has had some fairly hot weather this week. The hottest day this week saw many cities with highs between 100 and 108F (38-42C). It has since cooled down somewhat with a few showers but some areas were still well into the 90s F (33-37C) yesterday. The central China region, north of the Yangtze river, can expect scattered showers and seasonal temperatures today and Saturday. However, it looks drier and somewhat hotter beginning Sunday and continuing through next Wednesday. The long range charts suggest another chance for showers and cooler weather at the end of next week but this outlook is somewhat uncertain.

The Yangtze river valley should see moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms today through Sunday, possibly leading to more flooding concerns for this area.

Joel Burgio