As the crop season rolls into midsummer, we've got some real back-and-forth going on when it comes to the state of affairs weatherwise.

Light to locally moderate rain will move across the central and southern Plains through the western Midwest Wednesday. Eastern Midwest, northern Plains, and Delta areas will be mainly dry. The rain is not heavy enough to cause new flooding, but soils in the western Midwest will continue to be wet from these additional showers. We’ll also see some delays in wheat harvest; however, the southern Plains harvest season is very close to finishing. Temperatures will be hot in the eastern and southern areas as well, with the possibility of some stress to crops. In contrast, very cool conditions are in store for northern areas.

Highs: 70s Canadian Prairies, northern, western and central Plains; 80s northern, western, and central Midwest, southern Plains, Texas Panhandle, west Texas; 90s eastern and southern Midwest, Delta, Deep South, central, eastern and southern Texas.

Bulletins have quite a bit of flooding for the southern Plains--continued flood issues in the western and central Midwest--and heat concerns from the eastern Midwest through the Northeast. There is some heat stress to crops in the eastern Midwest from this weather pattern this week.

5-day rainfall does offer some potential for showers over the eastern Corn Belt and Delta--which will be welcome. We'll see rain in most of the central U.S.--possible flooding in the southeastern Plains--and wheat harvest delays due to rain in the central Plains.

5-day highs--on the mild side for sure. No threat to corn pollination from a temperature standpoint through the balance of this week. This, of course, is where some of the real discrepancies come in. Corn pollination is off to a good start with 19 percent silking. However, the crop conditions are declining--and maybe just a bit early for that feature. The overall U.S. crop rating dropped two percentage points last week, and the Iowa corn crop went down by seven points due to the effects of wet ground leaching out nutrients and causing drowned-out spots. On the other hand, of course, areas which aren't drowned out are looking very good.

The jet stream pattern through Saturday the 17th has fair model agreement. We stay with the U.S. depiction for a broad trough over the northern and eastern Midwest. Still some showers with no major heat wave problems.

There are some issues internationally. In Europe, France has 95-100 degree high temperatures forecast for Thursday. Look for that heat to spread northeast to Germany by the weekend--stressful to crops.

And the North China Plain is HOT--100+ again Tuesday--stressful to crops--certainly including corn. The northeast is not as hot, but this pattern is noteworthy.

Pertinent numbers from the Australia weather bureau regarding the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) in the Pacific are: average the last 30 days +3.65; average the last 90 days +6.96; daily contributor to the SOI calculation +14.47. So, at this point the Pacific SOI reading is edging toward La Nina values but it's not there yet.

Also, I'm taking some time off to get acquainted with my new grandson. I'll be back Monday July 19.

Bryce

I can be found on Twitter at bryceadtnwx.