Ag Weather Forum
Bryce Anderson DTN Ag Meteorologist and DTN Analyst

Monday 02/08/10
ECB Is In Heavy Snow Target

The last 4-5 days show that Winter 2009-10 just has a desire to bring misery to everyone. Here in Omaha, we've had 44.5 inches of snow for the entire season (this includes the 6 inches or so back in October)--the 44.5 inch total is 17 inches above average. We know what kind of calamity the Dakotas, Iowa and Minnesota have had.

The week before last, it was the southwestern Plains' turn to be hit with heavy snow and ice.

Of course, last weekend brought 2-3 feet of snow, almost 4 feet in some areas, to the East Coast. DTN executive editor Marcia Taylor has e-mailed comments about the travails of shoveling out 28 inches of snow from her driveway in the greater Philadelphia area.

And now, the eastern Corn Belt--Illinois through Indiana, Michigan and Ohio--has 9 inches or so of snow ahead in the next couple days.

I can't forget the Far West in this brief rundown. Heavy rain has caused mud slides and flooding in that region as well. El Nino has not been a congenial partner.

What a winter.

Bryce
Posted at 3:41PM CST 02/08/10 by Bryce Anderson
Comments (10)
This winter has certainly been a struggle. Here on the Minnesota Iowa border some corn in the fields is cover up with snow. Some of the plants still have a tassel sticking out. We are thankful to have modern cabs and 4 wheel drives to deal with the snow and cold. 40 years ago this much snow would have effected us all a lot more. Unfortunately there is no new technology to pick up the corn that will be left in the fields after its spring harvest. Expect a large harvest loss.
Posted by ax handle at 6:38AM CST 02/09/10
Not to worry about yield loss,USDA already figured that out for you and decided its not that bad. When they reported that prices reflected it. Dont believe the numbers when you cross the scales,just remember USDA says its not that bad.
Posted by William Witzel at 10:09AM CST 02/09/10
Sarcasm will get you no where. We all had the opportunity to price at profitable levels before the Jan 12 report. With prices as high as they were the last two years, did you forward price any to average out these lower levels that we knew were to come?
Posted by Mike Madsen at 3:03PM CST 02/09/10
Cheyenne County Kansas - Northwest corner 2 degrees last night with no snow cover on the wheat. We had about 10 inches of snow back in Oct. - Nov. in 2 storms when picking corn and then 5 inches just before Christmas and a couple of dustings in January. Thats been it for our winter moisture. Wheat is very small and fields very soft so with any 35+mph winds its going to get dirty.
Posted by Dan Stephens at 8:42PM CST 02/09/10
Thanks, everyone, for those comments. I have heard both sides of the pricing story this winter at farm shows. Guys came up to our booth in Sioux Falls last month and said, "I should have sold more. I was waiting for the USDA report." I also talked to another man in S. Falls who said that he had done very well--sold in December. And I sat by a man from northeastern Nebraska yesterday on the plane who had sold all his soybeans at 9 bucks plus off the combine--plus had sold a good portion of his 2010 crop. He'd also done similar moves with corn (although he said he'd left some money on the table there).
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 4:44AM CST 02/10/10
Dan, in your wheat comment--has the crop broken dormancy yet?
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 4:45AM CST 02/10/10
Bryce - about 3 weeks ago we had a warm spell which was enough for the wheat to green up some then its gotten cold enough again to stop it. On one hand it'd be nice to get some growth before March since it didn't grow much last fall because of below normal temperatures in October and November. The wheat planted September 14th - 21st tillered some not as much as usual then 10 days of wet weather and planting resumed on September 30 with that wheat not tillering any.
Posted by Dan Stephens at 8:22AM CST 02/10/10
Re Mike: My comments werent to whine about not contracting at the high prices,I did get in on some of it.My point was USDA reports influence the markets whether the reports are factual or not. Unless you agree with every report they come out with,I would think we can all agree on that point.Driving next to,walking thru corn fields with 3-4 ft of snow in 'em and predicting yield loss and damage is more than I can do.
Posted by William Witzel at 12:44PM CST 02/10/10
Understood. I don't care much for the reporting either, but it is a part of the marketing dilemma every year. I have some neighbors with corn in the field, bins are full of light corn and I am sure some will go out of condition somewhere too. It is too bad that the trade takes the USDA reports as serious as they do. We as producers know better. I have had a farm yield projected by a USDA rep for the last 5 years. Only one of those years was he even close to what was harvested. Those are the stories that never reach the traders. My point is most of us look at what happened yesterday and are quick to blame someone else for our mistakes, that we believe the market has made for us. It is a long marketing year and by the time this years crop is all sold, many opportunities will be gained and lost.
Posted by Mike Madsen at 9:27PM CST 02/10/10
Folks, this is a very interesting round of comments. I appreciate your taking the time to respond. It's a very frustrating season for sure and one where from my standpoint I have to be careful about making any blanket judgments on either side.
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 10:04PM CST 02/11/10
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