Bulls be careful- there is potential for 70 bu+ soybeans in the sharp looking/ full sub soil fields in the north.

The Canadian Wheat Board today (Friday) lowered its Canada wheat crop forecast for Western Canada by 2 percent. Reuters reports that farmers in the country's main crop-growing region look to harvest 18.45 million tonnes of all-wheat, the Wheat Board said, down 450,000 tonnes from its June 11 forecast and the smallest wheat crop in three years.

Let the Climate battle begin....

The facts are sad, the climate deniers are weird.

Jay, facts are facts. Sad are those that try to use them for personal or political gain. I believe the debate is more on why, not if. Read this. http://cdapress.com/columns/cliff_harris/article_ed7e8add-56fa-5f6c-8a7a-c8d9839f0ba7.html

The following link is to a short, informative definition of how carbon dioxide influences the warming mechanism of the atmosphere. http://www.pa.msu.edu/sciencet/ask_st/083194.html

here is the pertinent description from that link that I just posted: "Most of the light energy from the sun is emitted in wavelengths shorter than 4,000 nanometers (.000004 meters). The heat energy released from the earth, however, is released in wavelengths longer than 4,000 nanometers. Carbon dioxide doesn't absorb the energy from the sun, but it does absorb some of the heat energy released from the earth. When a molecule of carbon dioxide absorbs heat energy, it goes into an excited unstable state. It can become stable again by releasing the energy it absorbed. Some of the released energy will go back to the earth and some will go out into space. So in effect, carbon dioxide lets the light energy in, but doesn't let all of the heat energy out, similar to a greenhouse." That's about as concise as you can get in describing the influence that carbon dioxide has on the atmosphere. BA

Once again the soothsayers of Gore. We, in the west, are experiencing the coolest summer on record. And the nation experienced one of the coldest winters on record. All the highly intricate studies and tests from these and so called scientists, (where are they coming from, their fabricated statistics were denounced last year.) They are also allowing fat Gore to make a few hundred million from his energy company. On a cruise to Alaska, we had an opportunity to have a biologist \ environmentalist on board who pointed out the diminishing glaciers and then pointed out the growing glaciers also. The balance of life. And when all is said and done, the earth like big, wet dog tired of his flees, just gives a big shake and we are history. She then moves on to the next life cycle for her.

Winter 2009-2010 was actually not that cold in terms of its ranking to the 30-year normals. There is a good review of the winter at this link: http://www2.ucar.edu/magazine/currents/wet-cool-and-wild-winter-2009-2010

From the NOAA report. "The report emphasizes that human society has developed for thousands of years under one climatic state, and now a new set of climatic conditions are taking shape. These conditions are consistently warmer," Makes me wonder why the receding glaciers, in Greenland, are uncovering 800 year old farms.

I've been looking online for the USDA average yields for 1970 compare to 2009 or even those decades and also the world population numbers for the same period. Maybe population growth is also due to global warming. But, it's raining again and I have to go shut off an irrigater. Could it be that global warming is Gods way to help us feed the world. Just a thought.

Have a look at the year 1973.

harry, refresh my memory. that was the year after the russian grain robbery? or the year of? i was a junior in hs. time flies. dave wiebke

New crop corn and beans made there contract highs in August 1973. perhaps Harry is looking for a repeat.

I was going for a true historical comparison in this blog item, but yes, 1972 saw a sharp drop in production in the Soviet Union, which led to their entering the U.S. market.

You maybe should check with people in IL counties such as Hancock, McDonough, Adams and some close to that area in Iowa and Missouri. The crop moisture map does not show them as having excess moisture but if you drive through the area I think you would think different. Fields not planted and water standing in fields in yellow and drowned out areas as has been the case for several weeks if not several months.

I OWN FARMS IN HANCOCK IL, CROPS ARE VERY BAD IN THAT AREA. RICHARD

Northeast Indiana, that rain was a life saver for us, got about 1.5" , will need more in 5 days to keep the crops going,

Hancock county IL is definitely in the core of flooding for this season.

No rain event here! Have only had 1.25 inches since the 24 of June. Crops heading south fast.

Bryce, We farm in East central Illinois. My wife is a weather reporter for COCORAHS, so her readings are accurate. Since a June 21 rain, we have only had 1.04 inch of rain. the crops that survived the soggy/late planting and ponds (can you say shallow roots) are now begging for rain. Corn is fired up to the ear and beans are slowing their growth. The people at the Board of Trade Need to take a helicopter ride from Joliet to Danville and see what is missing. I hope everybody's crop insurance is good.

Bryce, here in northeast Indiana, we are having alot of stress on the corn now. talked to the crop agent and he feels some corn is now down to 100 bu/acre, so do I, some on low ground is holding its own but another week of this hot dry weather and we are hurt on yields here. The beans look fairly good so far, but you are starting to see the dry spots appearing in the beans, and some are setting pods now, not good. I drove east in Ohio and their crops are not very good either.

We all will have to wait a year for everybody to figure the yields are not out there. It took almost a year for the usda to figure out the corn from last harvest had low test weight.

Thanks for those comments. This is certainly a much different setup than we had a year ago. It will be interesting to see what the crop tours in a couple weeks come up with in their assessments.

How close were the crop tour numbers last year to the latest USDA numbers?

Mark, the pro farmer crop tour estimated corn at 160 assuming a "normal" finish and USDA still has 164. The true yield probably lies closer to the Pro farmer results than USDA's.

Thanks for the additional detail re the PF tour last year.

Bryce, maybe people and the USDA should look at land worth corporations estimates of the last 3 years, especially last years. They said last years production was a billion bushel less on corn than the USDA, because of test weights and moisture problems. It sure is funny that USDA all of a sudden a year later starts lowering production, but look what happened to the price of corn during that time. I wonder why they left the production up there!! I guess you can make up your own mind.

Are we still thinking an August La Nina drought is going to happen. Another inch of rain overnight. Soil profile is full. A couple of rains in August and the crop is made.

If USDA is lowering old crop estimates doesnt that imply that NAAS should lower county yield as well. Perhaps afterall we should get a GRIP payment since we were right on the line for payments based on yields. Once again Gov't is involved and Oh so wrong

Can you all say ACRE PAYMENTS? good reason to manipulate crop yields

The biggest risk to crops from a late-summer La Nina is Missouri Bootheel south. LN is shaping up too late to really be a problem for the Midwest.

Bryce, What percentage of Russia's wheat crop is being affected by dry conditions?

Bill, it looks like over the Russia wheat crop has been hurt by this season's drought. Here is a link to a wire service account with that assessment: http://dld.bz/mWWE

Bryce, How do you see August playing out for rainfall?

Aaron, we're going to have both a late summer forecast article series and a webinar on the same subject next week, so we'll cover those features during that time frame.

Wish you people would drive to eastern Indiana and look at our POOR crops, guess we don't mean much

100 degree days for the next 10 days won't help pollintion in SW Nebraska

Hey Bryce,,, do you have any idea why my area, so. Penna. on the Mason Dixon line is in a severe drought? It must be very local, we haven't had rain for a month now, 100 plus degrees now with only t-storms in sight. I have never seen such a melt down like this. Suppose to be over 100 today. If this was wide spread corn would be $10 a bushel. Any hope for us?

Jay, your area has been the center of upper-air ridging that the Euro model kept trying to bring farther west into the Ohio Valley. It's been a powerful ridge for sure. We do look for this ridge to switch its focus more to the southeastern part of the country during the next five days and that should allow for some milder temperatures along with some showers for the mid-Atlantic region.

Is it possible than for you to rate your confidence level in your forecast? Say on a scale of 1 to 10. Doran

My bookeeper and I had a conversation about mid summer heat and dryness here in central ks. I told him that if we can get the 4th of July rain, that humidity levels would stay adequate here and that leads to a milder temperature and wetter forecast for the remainder of the summer. I have zero meteorological training, this is based solely on common sense and experience. Am I right?

Doran, we pretty much work with a low-medium-high confidence ranking. That covers the ballpark well in our view. And, regarding Unknown's Kansas question--you're right regarding the rainfall trends and follow-up weather patterns for central Kansas. If you can stay away from the hot and dry setup through July 4, you then get more into the late-summer monsoon rainfall period for the southern Plains, so on a large-scale weather pattern, you're home free.