South America Calling

Brazil's Abiove Raises Soybean View to 92.3 MMT

Brazil's Soy Industry Association (Abiove) raised its forecast Tuesday for the 2014-15 season by 400,000 metric tons to 92.3 million metric tons (mmt).

The hike bucks the recent trend for falling soybean numbers amid dryness concerns in the center-west and northeast. However, Abiove previously had a much lower number than everyone else.

Abiove had chosen to be conservative with its figure until the size of the crop became more apparent, according to Fabio Trigueirinho, the association's executive secretary.

The figure is not based on survey but is decided collectively among Abiove's members, which includes all the major multinational trading firms.

Private consultants have been lowering their crop figures from the 95 mmt range to 92-94 mmt over the past couple of weeks due to a drier-than-normal January across most of the Cerrado region. Reports from Mato Grosso farmers indicate the crop does have some issues there.

Abiove maintained its soybean export forecast at 48.0 mmt, up 5% on the year before, but raised its carryover stock forecast by 8.7% to 6.1 mmt.

Alastair Stewart can be reached at alastair.stewart@dtn.com

(ES)

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