South America Calling

AgRural Slashes Brazil Soy View to 91.9 MMT

Brazil will produce just 91.9 million metric tons of soybeans in the current season, AgRural, a local farm consultancy, said Monday.

It slashed its forecast from 95.0 mmt after a hot, dry January cut yield potential across the top-producing Center-West region.

The delay in soybean planting across Mato Grosso, Goias and Mato Grosso do Sul proved vital as it meant a large part of the crop was filling pods amid high temperatures and sparse rain over the last month.

The state with the biggest losses is Goias, for which the average yield forecast was cut to 40 bushels per acre from 45 bpa. Rains returned to the No. 4 producing state last week but they came too late for some crops.

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Crops in Mato Grosso do Sul were doing well until January, when the dry weather hit, cutting yield potential by 2.7 bpa to 43 bpa, said AgRural.

However, the biggest surprise is the losses in Mato Grosso, where dryness in the north and east has caused yield numbers to be cut 3 bpa to 4 bpa for those regions. Average yields in the state are now estimated at 44 bpa. Similarly, rain returned to the region last week, but too late to recuperate losses.

Estimates were also lowered for Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo and the north/northeastern states by around a bushel per acre.

In compensation, crops in the southern states are looking excellent, said the consultancy.

It raised yield estimates by half a bushel per acre to 48 bpa for Parana and by a bushel to 42 bpa in Rio Grande do Sul.

Harvest efforts continued to move forward over the last week but the numbers are starting to reflect the delays in Mato Grosso planting.

As of Friday, some 9% of the Brazilian crop had been harvested, compared with 12% at the same point last year.

(AG)

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