South America Calling

Rosario Exchange Lowers Argentine Soy View

The Rosario Cereals Exchange this week lowered its Argentine 2014-15 soybean crop view from 55.0 million metric tons (mmt) to 54.5 mmt due to a reduction in projected planted area.

The exchange did not give a reason for clipping its area number marginally to 51.0 million acres, but there are reports of seed issues in the north of the grain belt and dry weather in the south, two areas concluding planting in January.

According to the exchange's closely watched numbers, soybean planting is now 96% complete.

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Despite shaving its estimate, the exchange said most of Argentina's soybeans are in good to very good condition. Central producing areas in Buenos Aires, Cordoba and La Pampa province could do with some more rain, but the situation is of little concern as there are multiple rain-carrying weather systems active in the region.

The crop forecast is based on historic yield curves and marginally down from the 55.6 mmt produced last year, said the exchange in a note.

Meanwhile, the exchange raised its 2014-15 corn production forecast from 21.5 mmt to 22.4 mmt amid expectations of excellent yields.

In December, rainfall was heavy across the north of the grain belt and sufficient across the middle, while temperatures were generally lower than normal, fostering good corn development.

As a result, the exchange now predicts average yields of 117 bushels per acre, up 8% on the average registered over the past five years.

However, weather conditions in the second half of January will go a long way in determining the size of the crop.

Farmers have already planted 90% of the crop.

(AG)

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