South America Calling

Mato Grosso Soy Needs More Consistent Rain

Soybean futures may have fallen under pressure this week after the U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its forecast for the Brazilian crop, but farmers in the top-producing state of Mato Grosso aren't too confident about the crop just yet.

That's because, over the last 15 to 20 days, the heavy rains typical of January in Mato Grosso haven't fallen and temperatures have been very high.

With light regular showers still falling in many areas, there is no talk of losses, but most of the state's crop is now hitting the pod-filling stage and in need of more consistent rain, said Nery Ribas, technical director at the Mato Grosso Soybean and Corn Growers Association (APROSOJA--MT).

The return of heavy rainfall over the next two weeks is crucial to crops in many parts of the state. Unfortunately, no more than light showers are expected until Jan. 22, said Marco Antonio dos Santos, meteorologist at Somar, a local weather service.

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From that date, the atmospheric block over the region will be cleared, allowing for the entry of cold fronts and heavy deluges once again, he said.

On the plus side, the drier weather has reduced pest and fungus populations, with very few cases of Asian rust reported, said APROSOJA's Nery.

So, no real losses, but a delicate situation.

Farmers in Mato Grosso have started harvesting beans, collecting 2% of the crop up to last Thursday, and normally field work would be entering top gear over the next couple of weeks. But the crop is delayed two to three weeks because of late planting, and harvesting will only peak in late February.

Early-harvest yields are averaging at 45 to 54 bushels per acre, which is considered good.

The USDA pegs Brazil's soybean crop at 95.5 million metric tons (mmt), while Brazil's Agriculture Ministry forecasts output of 95.9 mmt. Mato Grosso accounts for approximately a third of Brazilian soybean production.

Alastair Stewart can be reached at alastair.stewart@dtn.com

(AG)

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