South America Calling

Brazil's Ag Ministry Pegs 2014-15 Soy Crop At 89.3 MMT To 91.7 MMT

Brazil's agriculture ministry refined its forecast for 2014-15 soybean output in its latest crop report.

Production is pegged at a record 89.3 million metric tons to 91.7 million metric tons, a slightly tighter range than the 88.8 mmt to 92.4 mmt forecast in October but with a similar center point.

The official figure for the world's No. 2 crop is at the low end of the range of forecasts for the current crop, which go as high as 96 mmt.

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Production is seen growing 3.7% to 6.5% from last year on a 2.3% to 5.1% increase in area.

The report, compiled by the Ministry's Conab crop supply company, highlighted the delays in Center-West planting and the efforts of farmers to plant quickly over the last couple of weeks with the return of rains to ensure the maximum possible portion of the crop gets in the ground during the ideal planting window.

The Conab forecast is closely watched because the government survey is perhaps the most exhaustive.

First-crop corn production was pegged at 27.9 mmt to 29.5 mmt in the November report, virtually the same as in October but down 6.8% to 11.8% on last year as farmers switch to soybeans and reject negative margins expected for the grain this year.

The forecast for the 2014 wheat crop was lowered to 7.0 mmt from 7.7 mmt in the October report due to the problems experienced throughout the season, which ranged from untimely frosts and excessive rain to hail and high instances of disease. Conab noted that while early-harvested crops registered good yields and were of high quality, more recently harvested wheat are producing much lower yields. With 43% of the crop harvested at the start of November, the remainder is expected to show similarly lower yields and quality. Output is still seen 26.7% higher than last year on a 22.9% increase in area.

(AG)

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