South America Calling

The recent jump in soybean prices has done little to stimulate sales on the Brazilian market, according to Celeres, a local farm consultancy.

Farmers had committed just 12% of their 2014-15 soybean crop as of October 31 against 32% at the same point last year, said the consultancy's report.

Sales had moved on just one percentage point in a month, it said.

Domestic prices have reacted over the past two weeks due to the meal-driven jump in futures prices, a decline in the Brazilian real and the relevant strength of November export premiums, despite the arrival of the U.S. crop.

As a result, farmers are being offered around R$49 to R$50 per 60-kilogram bag for soybeans for February delivery in central and southern Mato Grosso. That's not far off the R$53-R$55 offered at the same time last year.

"Soybean farmers should be attentive to these upward movements of the market to sell at least part of their crop," said Celeres.

But most farmers are waiting for even higher prices to offset rising costs.

Eloiza Zucanelli will plant 10,500 acres of soy in Tangara da Serra, center-west Mato Grosso, this year but has yet to sell any of the crop on the market.

"We have committed a portion in exchange for crop inputs but nothing else," she told DTN. "We have waited this long to sell. We might as well wait a bit longer," she added.

The Brazilian real has fallen around 10% against the dollar in the last two months amid election uncertainty and concerns over economic weakness.

Celeres pegs the Brazilian soybean crop at 91.3 million metric tons, up 6% on last year and at the low end of forecasts that range from 91 to 96 mmt.

(CZ)

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