South America Calling

Elections are often painted as political drama.

But in reality, the story lines are normally pretty simple. Once a candidate establishes a lead in the polls, they are rarely overtaken.

Well, Brazil's 2014 presidential election is an exception.

Just one month ago, President Dilma Rousseff must have felt quietly confident about her chances of reelection come October. The leftist incumbent had a 15-point lead over her nearest rival, Aecio Neves, while the third-placed candidate Eduardo Campos was languishing with just 9% support.

Then a tragic accident turned the race upside down.

On Aug. 13, Campos' Cessna jet crashed in the port city of Santos, killing the candidate along with six others on board.

In the wake of the accident, Campos' Brazilian Socialist Party named his running mate Marina Silva as their new candidate.

Unlike Campos, Silva is widely known in Brazil as an environmental activist. She won 20% of the vote in the 2010 election as a Green Party candidate, attracting support from votes protesting the self-serving ways of Rousseff's Workers' Party, Neves' Brazilian Social Democratic Party and the pork-barrel politics of the other parties that support them.

Campos tried to tap into this disenchantment this time around, while pushing a broadly pro-business, market-friendly agenda.

He had limited success with this campaign mix, but it has turned into political dynamite in the hands of Silva.

From nowhere, Silva surged in the polls and would beat Rousseff in a run-off by 7 points, according to the latest survey.

The bookmakers Friday put the chances of Rousseff winning in October at 35% against about 60% for Silva.

Silva has a radical leftist past, but markets have been wooed by her commitments to implement Campos' pro-market agenda. The Brazilian stock market has gone on a bull tear over the last few weeks.

But Silva's rise has left agriculture on edge.

AN OPPONENT OF AGRICULTURE?

Daughter of poor Amazonian rubber tappers, the candidate rose to prominence as an anti-deforestation activist.

During her time as environment minister between 2003 and 2008, she was critical of agriculture's role in deforestation and its impact on the environment.

Indeed, she resigned in protest that the government was putting development before preservation.

Back then, Silva was 'very aggressive and harsh' on agriculture, according to Katia Abreu, president of the Brazilian Agriculture Confederation (CNA),

The criticism continued when she moved to the Green Party.

ATTEMPTS TO WOO

But since becoming a candidate, Silva has changed her tune.

She has cozied up to agribusiness, as part of her effort to embrace business interests frustrated by Brazil's sluggish economy and Rousseff's interventionist ways.

First of all, she named Beto Albuquerque, a southern deputy with links to agribusiness, as her running mate.

Then last week pledged to rejuvenate the ethanol market to the delight of the great and good of the sugar and ethanol industry at a conference in the interior of Sao Paulo.

The courtship continued when she dined with 50 leading farm and agribusiness representatives last Friday evening. At the closed event, she reaffirmed her openness to dialogue the sector, according to Luiz Cornacchioni, executive-director of the Brazilian Agribusiness Association (ABAG).

Notably, she gave no indication that she would seek to bring in more stringent environmental controls on agriculture.

Back in 2012, Brazil passed a new Forestry Code, which sets out rules for the preservation of natural habitats on farms.

The rules puts the onus on farmers to leave significant portions of properties uncultivated but was widely welcomed by agriculture as it had the potential to end the legal uncertainty over obligations.

According to Cornacchioni, Silva recognized the sector had made efforts to reduce its environmental footprint and would not want to change the code.

She was also open to talk about resolving disputes of indigenous lands.

This newfound affinity with agribusiness is inherited from Campos and clearly part of a strategy to exploit President Rousseff's weak spot is the economy, which has been slow over the last four years and fell into recession last quarter.

EMPTY PROMISES?

But voters the world over know pledges on the campaign stump are often left by the wayside once candidates enter office.

The president has enormous political power in Brazil and could easily impose a harsh environmental agenda once in power.

Indeed, speaking at an event in Argentina, Blairo Maggi, formerly Brazil's largest soy farmer and former governor of Mato Grosso, warned that is precisely what she will do, calling her messianic and sneaky.

If she inspired environmental inspectors to enforce Brazil's ample environmental legislation strictly, life could get harder for farmers.

GREAT STRIDES

But this is a very pessimistic view.

Back in 2005, the idea of Marina Silva as president would have struck fear into farmers. But nine years on, the farm sector has done a lot to clean up its environmental act.

Increased monitoring, principally via satellite, reduced deforestation fivefold between 2004 and 2012, while the industry-led moratorium on soybean purchases from the Amazon means grain farming is no longer a significant driver for forest clearance.

Meanwhile, the Forestry Code has created a framework for farmers to follow environmental rules that were missing before.

"The vast majority of farmers seek to follow environmental rules now. In theory, that should mean there is no conflict with Marina (Silva)," one industry executive told me.

Of course, I am making a huge assumption here. Silva is no shoe-in. She has to maintain the initial momentum amid concerted attacks from her rivals. Interestingly, a survey issued Thursday showed that while Silva was leading in the polls, some 44% thought that Rousseff would win against 33% for Silva.

(ES)

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