Production Blog

Watching Wheat

Emily Unglesbee
By  Emily Unglesbee , DTN Staff Reporter
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Wheat in the Great Plains has a long way to go until harvest, with threats like late frosts, weed pressure, and drought lying in wait. (DTN photo by Katie Micik)

ST. LOUIS (DTN) -- Wheat is earning its reputation as a survivor, even as dry weather, frost danger, and weed pressure loom in its future.

After a brutal November cold snap that shocked a warm, growing wheat crop into dormancy in the Great Plains last fall, many fields in northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska were given up for dead this spring.

Yet some much-needed rainfall in Kansas and Nebraska last week has had the Lazarus effect on some damaged fields, said Kansas State Extension agronomist Jeanne Falk Jones, who covers the northwestern region of the state.

"This rain gave everything a second chance," she said. "We're seeing some improvements in wheat that was looking pretty damaged. Before this rain, I would have said our yields would be down but now I think maybe wheat will surprise us a little bit."

Insurance adjusters are out and about, sizing up the viability of many fields in Kansas and Nebraska, and recent rains could make their appraisals a little trickier. "There's a lot of variability even within a field," Jones said of the wheat quality. "I can't imagine it will be an easy call."

Some fields have been released for replanting in southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas, but many farmers will probably shoulder on with what they have, University of Nebraska Extension cropping systems specialist Bob Klein said.

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"I don't think the winter damage will have a major effect on production," he said. "We have some good wheat out here -- we have fields ranging from excellent to disaster and everything in between."

For now, most wheat growers are bracing for the spring threats that lie ahead: late frosts, weed pressure and drought, Klein added.

Already, parts of south-central and southeastern Kansas have experienced a late spring freeze, when temperatures dipped into the 20s Fahrenheit overnight in the first week of April. Earlier-planted wheat had already reached the jointing stage and many fields experienced freeze damage, Kansas State Crops and Soils Specialist Doug Shoup stated in a university news release.

More of the same could be ahead, both Klein and Jones noted. "A late freeze would really finish us off here," Klein said.

Drought will inevitably play one of the biggest roles in the future of the wheat crop in the Great Plains. Nearly the entire state of Kansas ranges from abnormally dry to extreme drought in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor ratings. Southern Nebraska remains dry, and the western side of Oklahoma is heading into its fifth year of extreme drought.

One south-central Kansas wheat farmer noted that the dry conditions, combined with the April freezes will probably reduce dryland yields by a third in his area.

Nor is the forecast too promising. DTN senior meteorologist Bryce Anderson doesn't expect the southwestern Plains to see much moisture this spring. "The impact on wheat will be one of these fair-to-middling crops -- not a disaster but certainly not a top-performing harvest," he predicted.

Summer temperatures will play a big role in wheat yields, Klein added. "It's so critical on wheat yields to have long, cool grain-filling period," during the month of June, he said. "Hot, dry temperatures during filling period really lower yield."

In the meantime, the same rains that recently revived some winter-worn wheat fields have also given new life to the weed populations, Jones said. Growers will need to get out and spray soon, as herbicide options drop off as wheat passes the jointing and boot stages. "With glyphosate resistant kochia in our area, it should be on everyone's mind to be preemptive about weeds," Jones said.

Ironically, growers with thin stands and the least production potential will find themselves in the worst weed situation. "You'll have to decide how many bushels you are going to save by putting out $20 an acre of herbicide on those fields," a south-central Kansas farmer said.

As the season continues, Jones perhaps best summed up the attitude of wheat farmers across the Great Plains: "I think we're always just kind of holding our breath until harvest."

Emily Unglesbee can be reached at emily.unglesbee@dtn.com.

Follow Emily Unglesbee on Twitter @Emily_Unglesbee

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Freeport IL
4/28/2015 | 9:25 AM CDT
No matter how well the one armed man's wife treats him - he will only have one arm. Wheat works a little differently. It is possible with a lot of TLC for wheat to regenerate - compensating for early loses. It is possible but not probable for a total recovery. The challenge - price wise - is there is a lot of supply for most wheat types. Damage to Hard red winter wheat could allow its futures price to earn its carry. But will be hard pressed for a better move unless hard red spring wheat, here and/or in Canada, has a good stubble. High protein wheat will demand premiums. Ninety plus percent of soft white winter wheat (SWWW) is grown in Oregon, Washington and Idaho. That cropâ?™s production could be hurt enough to move it to rationing mode. About half of SWWW is exported - mostly to Asia. There have been indications that Soft Red Winter Wheat (SRWW) has picked up that demand in the past. The gulf SRWW basis might be indicating that increased demand. Europeâ?™s big crop will limit east coast exports allowing SRWW to find the feeding ration in the Carolinas. If wheat does not find its missing arm, wheat prices, could stabilize and grind higher. This might be mildly supportive for corn. Freeport, IL