Production Blog

Corn Belt Moves North

Elaine Shein
By  Elaine Shein , DTN/Progressive Farmer Associate Content Manager
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With more research dedicated to corn hybrids for Western Canada, and climate change expected to raise temperatures in the north, corn could start to replace some of the traditional crops associated with the Prairies, such as these in Saskatchewan. (DTN photo by Elaine Shein)

Could fields of rippling wheat heads and bright yellow canola blossoms in Western Canada really become millions of acres of corn 10 years from now?

Companies such as Monsanto and DuPont Pioneer believe research will help provide the key to expand that crop option beyond mostly southern Manitoba in Canada's western provinces. Both companies have earlier-maturing hybrids in their research pipelines that could become available within the next three to five years.

However, the ambitious research programs might not be the only factor that could influence Canadian farmers to consider planting corn.

Farmers in the Prairies have been challenged with more unusual weather patterns in the last few years. Questions arise: How much of this is due to climate change? Also, what challenges and opportunities could this mean for farmers? Can corn really be grown in this region, given the shorter growing season and lower temperatures?

DuPont Pioneer Vice President of Research John Soper told DTN's Editor-in-Chief Greg Horstmeier recently that his company believes the shift in weather will open up opportunities for farmers in those regions.

Climate change, along with its possible effects on agriculture, is already being researched at the national level. Some of the impact is summarized on Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada website (http://bit.ly/…):

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"Numerous studies of the impact of climate change suggest that most regions of Canada are projected to warm during the next 60 years," according to the site. This could expand the growing season and include milder, shorter winters in some regions. "This could increase productivity and allow the use of new and potentially more profitable crops."

The site continued: "Using information produced by the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis global circulation model for the three Prairie provinces under two conditions, current climate and future climate, AAFC scientists predicted in 2004 that under a future climate, on average, high temperatures would increase by 2 degrees Celsius to 3 degrees C and low temperatures increase by about 3 degrees C."

Higher temperatures and longer frost-free seasons might help new crops such as corn, but there could be a mixed outlook on whether this helps or hinders Prairie crops. Precipitation already is a big factor on where corn is being produced in Canada.

Monsanto's Public and Industry Affairs Director Trish Jordan told DTN in an interview that the higher humidity in Ontario and southern Manitoba has been beneficial for corn crops there, giving them an advantage over Saskatchewan and Alberta.

Ag Canada information also indicated there could be changes to precipitation patterns in the Prairies, leading to mixed effects on crops depending on how and where rain patterns shift. Increased precipitation could happen in Alberta.

Ag Canada's report showed that when compared to the current climate, the model predicted that precipitation was to increase by 3% to 7%. Also, "The results suggested that Alberta would benefit the most from increased summer and winter precipitation. However, eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba would experience little change or smaller increases. Since there is a growing-season moisture deficit in much of the Prairie region, even slight declines in the availability of moisture could significantly harm crop production."

But while Alberta and Saskatchewan could benefit from higher precipitation or humidity, crop seeding and fieldwork could be affected (such as shown by this spring's floods in Saskatchewan and Manitoba), or damage could occur (demonstrated by sudden heavy rains and floods recently in Alberta). This week some Saskatchewan farmers had grapefruit-sized hail pound their crops. Researchers think the frequency and intensity of droughts and violent storms can occur with climate change.

Changes in temperature and precipitation could also lead to new or more pest problems, as well as diseases in crops. Seed companies will need to factor these problems into hybrid and trait development.

A Monsanto news release recently indicated up to 10 million acres of corn could be possible 10 years from now in Western Canada.

If and how quickly climate change influences and alters the western landscape during the next decade will ultimately decide if corn is a viable, profitable option for the Prairies.

Elaine Shein can be reached at Elaine.shein@telventdtn.com

(PS/CZ)

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