Ag Policy Blog

From DTN's Washington Insider column:

Well, the congressional Ag leaders must be surprised that the once sedate farm-bill debate that was expected to surmount a few bumps last year has escalated now into a nationwide brawl involving mainly "name" players — The Wall Street Journal, Paul Krugman of the New York Times, the Congressional Black Caucus, and the big names in the House leadership, especially Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Va.. As you might expect, this not only is leading to many versions of "facts" but to loyalties based on who knows what, with the debate often only very weakly tied to farm or food policy.

This battle is far advanced now, and House leadership could move this week to appoint conferees for the overall bill, once it merges its dual farm and food efforts. And, what is most unusual and may be telling is the majority leader's role in the final talks. Even as Ag Committee Chair Frank Lucas, R-Okla., continues to suggest confidently that he will have the lead and be able to "cut a deal" on the nutrition issue, it seems increasingly that Cantor will push Lucas into the background in order to ensure that no "Lucas deal" emerges.

This could be important because Lucas probably could work a deal — if he were is permitted to do so. The proposals have been different — the House nutrition bill would reduce spending by nearly $40 billion, twice as much as in Lucas' House Ag Committee bill and ten times the $4 billion the Senate would cut. By all appearances, the conferees will have a wide range of choices — but perhaps not if Cantor freezes them fast to the $40 billion version.

The Cantor vs. Lucas speculation includes other features, as well, including much tighter rules that would roll back state waivers that allow able-bodied, childless adults to collect benefits and similar features. Cantor and Lucas also appear to disagree over the House bill's early expiration date for the nutrition title.

Lucas told the press last week that he doesn't know what Cantor's role will be and suggested that "We'll likely get the first indication of the answer when the leadership appoints conferees for the bill." However, Cantor's interest has been evident for a long time.

As early as last January's Republican retreat in Williamsburg, Va., Cantor was advocating a plan to apply more stringent rules to programs such as food stamps and housing. Then in the June farm bill debate, Cantor pushed for an especially controversial amendment to the House ag committee original farm bill that observers say "likely cost the legislation a critical number of Democratic votes on final passage."

Even after that bill failed, the amendment was included in last week's nutrition measure. It is criticized for its financial incentive for states to trim supplemental nutrition rolls through tighter work requirements.

In addition, the publication CQ Roll Call notes that following the defeat of the farm bill in June, Cantor formed a working group of about 15 GOP members — from the Agriculture Committee, the Republican Study Committee and the moderate Tuesday Group — to review and sign off on a stand-alone nutrition bill that was sent to the Republican Conference before the August break.

Observers argue that Cantor knew that no Democrats would support his approach, and that he lacked GOP votes to pass it, so he tightened down authorization to just three years — an effort to permanently split the urban-rural alliance that has been critical to both food stamps and farm programs in the past — a move apparently intended to provide additional leverage in the conference committee by making it appealing to House conservatives.

That strategy is now credited with winning more than 20 Republican votes.

So, increasingly the fate of the farm bill is seen hanging on Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program details and the efforts of the majority leader. Without a tightened work requirement and its effects on nutrition spending, Cantor would lose perhaps half the bill's savings. And, the changed expiration date goes a long way toward weakening the traditional farm-bill coalition, long an objective of conservatives.

Thus, an examination of the high political stakes for conservatives in this battle seems to signal a large, continuing role for Cantor and a diminished one for Lucas — and, increasing odds for a farm bill standoff, and, at best, yet another extension, Washington Insider believes.

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