Sen. Ted Kennedy's death will create a ripple effect in the U.S. Senate when it comes to chairmanships of committees. While there are different potential scenarios that could happen, one likely scenario highlighted by a Washington-based analysis firm is that Sen. Blanche Lincoln, D-Ark., will rise to be chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee, replacing current chairman, Sen. Tom Harkin, D-Iowa.

Kennedy chaired the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, the key committee in the Senate on crafting health-care reform legislation. The next ranking Democrat on that committee is Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Conn. So it falls on Dodd to decide if he is willing to give up his chairmanship on the Senate Banking Committee to takeover Kennedy's chair. One Washington analysis group doesn't see Dodd giving up Banking for the HELP committee. Then chairmanship for the HELP committee would fall to Harkin, who has always placed a major emphasis on health issues. Harkin also has close ties to organized labor, which is a key area for the HELP committee.

If Harkin gives up his Ag chairmanship, several other key Democrats would in front of Lincoln. However, those Democrats --- Kent Conrad, D-N.D., Max Baucus, D-Mont., and Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., all chair other major committees and are unlikely to give those up for agriculture.

It would then fall to Lincoln to chair Agriculture. It would lead to an interesting shift in philosophies from Harkin to Lincoln. Also, Arkansas press and political newspapers have been reporting that Lincoln likely will face tough opposition next year not only from Republicans, but possibly a primary opponent as well. Lincoln is likely going to have to demonstrate her rural, social-and-fiscal conservative credentials to hold her seat.

At a hearing last month on climate legislation, Lincoln appeared highly skeptical and questioned the potential impacts on consumers in her state. Rice producers in Arkansas, Lincoln noted, also are not able to take advantage of carbon sequestration credits. That means getting Lincoln's support for a climate bill could be a significant challenge for party leadership.

Further, Lincoln also will be far more reluctant than Harkin to push potential future reductions in commodity program payments. Lincoln was a champion over the last two years for southern agriculture in attempting to block measures that would reduce direct payments or cap overall commodity payments.

Agricultural policy would then shift from having a major Midwest focus with House Agriculture Committee Chairman Collin Peterson, D-Minn., and Iowan Tom Vilsack as secretary of agriculture, along with Harkin. The Senate would be strongly southern with Lincoln and Ag Committee Ranking Member Saxby Chambliss, R-Ga.

I can be found on Twitter at chrisclaytonDTN.