The biggest threat to U.S. commodity programs and overall safety net apparently won't occur domestically, but will stem from international pressure.

U.S. farm programs took a couple of major blows this week with the language being released from a World Trade Organization ruling stating that the U.S. has not done enough to meet the obligations of the U.S. cotton case with Brazil. The ruling specifically pointed to two legs of the three-legged farm programs: marketing loans and counter-cyclical payments.

Reuters reported the WTO "compliance panel concluded in its 204-page report that "U.S. marketing loan and counter-cyclical payments have led to an increase in U.S. production and exports of cotton that have then suppressed world prices."

The panel ruled that the United States, the world's largest cotton exporter, remained in violation of world trade rules even after it repealed its "Step 2" payment to cotton mills and exporters in August 2006."

The WTO panelists obviously had not heard the Senate floor speeches last week on how the new farm bill will have more reform than any other in history, despite keeping much of the commodity program structure in place.

What is interesting about the cotton case is the length of time it has taken. Brazil originally brought the case in 2002. Here we are rolling into 2008 and the WTO again reaffirms itself, the Bush administration is considering one final appeal of the ruling and the new farm bill, while close to being done, is not yet complete.

Then we move on to the investigation now begun by the WTO on behalf of Brazil and Canada to simply challenge the total overall affect of U.S. farm subsidies that again would target the marketing-loan and counter-cyclical programs. Given the cotton ruling, the overriding issue would be if the U.S. can ride out another farm bill.

Farm groups overall have been in denial about the cotton case and its ramifications. They certainly brought nothing to the table to completely overhaul commodity programs. Changes proposed by corn growers and others to overhaul the counter-cyclical program are being implemented as an optional programs. The most radical proposals to change farm programs were attached and resoundingly voted down in the House and Senate. In fact, just last week Acting Agriculture Secretary chuck Conner referred to the proposal by Sens. Richard Lugar and Frank Lautenberg as "draconian."

It will likely remain popular to denounce the WTO and the Doha negotiations, but as the farm programs keep getting picked apart and other sectors of the economy start getting penalized with higher tariffs because of the stubborn position on current farm programs, there is a greater potential that the 2008 farm bill will unlikely survive intact to 2013. Then, people may look at the efforts of Lugar, Lautenberg and U.S. Reps. Ron Kind and Jeff Flake not as draconian, but as the last viable option.