Try as you might, it's tough to get hurt jumping out of a basement.

This may not strike you as a remarkable piece of wisdom. Yet it might be useful to those getting excited over the stability of hog prices through the first third of the fourth quarter.

While there's a strong seasonal tendency for barrows and gilts to lose a significant amount of value between midsummer and late Thanksgiving, such erosion doesn't seen to be in the cards this year with the cash market displaying a remarkable amount of stability since Labor Day.

In fact, the 51 to 52 percent of hog value is now trading nearly 5 percent higher than it was in late August. We haven't set the seasonal trend on its head like this since 1990. Famished for positive news, bulls understandably want to this odd late year "rally" as rip with market-turning significance.

But market context always informs seasonality. The discomforting fact is that the seasonal map has not been very useful in 2009. The traditional spring/summer rally proved to be a complete flop thanks to recessionary demand and H1N1 fears.

Well, guess what? The second quarter rally usually fits glove in hand with the fourth quarter price crash -- the bigger the former, the bigger the latter. A big part of this fall's price stability is tied to the fact that the sorry market of 2009 has never found a tall building to jump from.

For more Harrington comments check out www.feelofthemarket.com.

(KM)

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