Market Matters Blog

Additional Rains Add Insult to Injury Caused by Tropical Storm Bill

Mary Kennedy
By  Mary Kennedy , DTN Basis Analyst
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This flooded field of soybeans is located in Wells County, Indiana, near the Huntington Reservoir along the Wabash River. The Wabash River flows over 475 miles to its confluence with the Ohio River. This field has been under water for more than a week. (Photo courtesy Derek Blair, northeast Indiana)

When Tropical Storm Bill exited the U.S. on June 21, it left behind rainfall totals of 4 or more inches in eight states: Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma and Texas, according to the Weather Channel.

The arrival of Bill caused rivers in Texas and Oklahoma, which were already swollen due to heavy rains that fell over the Memorial Day weekend, to spill over again. Rivers in Missouri and Louisiana also suffered from Bill as flooding covered not only city streets, but farm fields that had just been planted with spring crops or were not yet planted. According to USDA, as of June 21, farmers in Missouri had only planted 51% of their soybeans versus the five-year average of 88% and that only 34% of the soybean crop was rated in good-to-excellent condition.

The National Weather Service issued a flood warning on Saturday, June 27, for the Missouri River at St. Charles. The river there was at 29 feet on Sunday, June 28, and is expected to crest at 30.3 feet Monday afternoon. That would be just over 5 feet above flood stage. (http://goo.gl/…) On June 28, the NWS also issued flood warnings for the Wabash River, which was 22.8 feet at Lafayette, Indiana; moderate flood stage is 20 feet. The NWS said, "At 22.0 feet, extensive flooding is in progress. During agricultural season, extensive crop damage occurs. Flooding will last from two days in central Indiana to the middle of July in southwest Indiana." (http://goo.gl/…)

Besides the stress on soybean crops, the soft red winter crop has suffered as well with diseases caused by too much rain. The CBOT price for soft red winter rose as Missouri, Indiana and Illinois were reported by USDA June 22 to have significant condition declines from the previous week. The front-month nearby Chicago wheat contracts traded to the highest levels seen since early January. For the week ending July 26, the July futures contract gained 73 3/4 cents per bushel in Chicago. Cash basis, on the other hand, was weaker at river facilities affected by the high water with basis 7-10 cents weaker on average.

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HIGH WATER LEVELS AFFECTING BARGE MOVEMENT

Just as many rivers had crested, more rain fell during the week of June 22, causing some of the rivers to climb back toward major flood stage. Tom Russell, Russell Marine Group, updated DTN in an email on June 29 on the most current river conditions. "High water on the Illinois River, Upper Mississippi middle area mile 300, and Upper Mississippi from St Louis to Cairo remain problematic," said Russell. "The rain pattern that has dropped concentrated amounts of rain in center areas of Midwest and Illinois River dropped more rain last weekend. The rain pattern in this area is forecast to drop slight to moderate amounts of rain in the area this week. Drying not expected to occur until July 9. Navigation in these three areas is difficult and very slow at best with some areas entirely closed. The situation is 'touch and go' and will require ongoing daily monitoring until general drop in water levels start to occur."

Russell said "Illinois River will see a rise due to weekend rain and some parts of the river are near record high levels set in 2013. Areas near the mouth of the river mile 30 to 89 will close due to high water and fear that levees may be compromised. The river in area of closure will not crest until July 4 -- 5 without additional rain. However, some rain is forecast throughout this week."

"On middle part of Upper Mississippi locks 25 (mile 241), 24 (mile 273), 22 (mile 301) were closed due high water last few days. However, weekend rain has not impacted this area and these locks are opening again to navigation by June 30," added Russell. "In the Upper Mississippi River at St Louis to Cairo, the St Louis Harbor did not close this past weekend as expected. The river level stopped rising just below closure levels. Some tows are moving out of the Harbor but it is extremely slow going and the Harbor remains heavily congested with back log of barges waiting to move."

All of the above areas are at critical mass and minor changes in rainfall or adjustments in water levels can mean the difference between rivers remaining open or closed, according to Russell. "Changes are occurring daily and will require close monitoring until there is a general improvement in conditions."

On June 25, USDA reported barge operators are not quoting rates for Illinois River barge services until most loading facilities are operational, which will occur sometime after the crest. "Barge operators have limited operations in the St. Louis area partly due to accumulations of flood-caused debris that can damage towboats and barges. In addition, tows of barges greater than 600 feet are restricted to daylight-only passage while the St. Louis gauge is greater than 25 feet," USDA reported. (http://goo.gl/…)

Russell said, "Elsewhere, The northern parts of Upper Mississippi River, Ohio River, and Lower Mississippi are OK at this point. The Arkansas River that had been closed due to high water is now entirely open. Some areas are daylight transit only."

Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

Follow Mary Kennedy on Twitter @MaryCKenn

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