Market Matters Blog

Rivers Fill Up, Wheat Condition Worsens, Harvest Slows

Mary Kennedy
By  Mary Kennedy , DTN Basis Analyst
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Rivers are filling up from frequent rains. This map of the Missouri River Basin is from the USGS.

Heavy, frequent rains in the central Plains filled the Missouri River up over its banks last week, along with creeks and streams in the same area. In a span of 36 hours, the river near Waverly, Missouri, rose three feet to 29.38 feet on June 7.

Adam Casner, a farmer in Carrollton, Missouri, told DTN via email he expected to be "heading for higher ground" on June 5 after packing up his home, equipment and tools as the flood waters threatened. He farms next to the levees along the Missouri River and said the water they were getting was "seep water," which is sitting in his corn fields. Casner said the water is "like a heavy rain that won't drain and will stand till the river goes down."

As of 8 p.m. June 6, the levees along the river were less than a foot from overtopping. The river crested the afternoon of June 7 at 29.42 feet and as of Monday morning, levels were at 26.74 feet. Minor flood stage is 20 feet; moderate flood stage is 29 feet; major flood stage is 31 feet.

Farther north near the confluence of the Missouri and Yellowstone rivers in North Dakota, the river breached minor flood stage on the morning of June 7 at 22.45 feet and was expected to crest at 22.9 feet late that day. Here is a link to the current status of the river: http://water.weather.gov/…

Heading south again, the historic rain fall that occurred in the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma during May caused a "significant fast rise" on the Missouri River, and the Arkansas River as well, according to Tom Russell, Russell Marine Group. Ingram Marine said on their website June 8 that the Arkansas River was experiencing high water conditions and the river was closed to navigation.

Russell told DTN in an email, "as the remainder of the rain system moved north, it did give slight rise to Illinois River and Upper Mississippi between St. Louis and Cairo, but manageable. As this water flushes down the Lower Mississippi it will keep water levels slightly high but manageable from Cairo to New Orleans."

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"Water levels in the Baton Rouge and New Orleans harbors will remain high enough throughout the balance of June to keep safety protocols in place, which have only been lifted for a brief period of time during mid-May. River levels are to remain slightly high and safety protocols in place at least until second half June," said Russell. "Barge and ocean vessel traffic is moving and loading with only minimal slowdowns due to water levels."

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist Bryce Anderson said "While flooding is occurring in the lower Missouri River in central Missouri, along with the Red River and Arkansas River in eastern Texas and western Louisiana, there is very little additional flooding forecast this week. Rainfall will be light, less than .25 inches, in the majority of the Plains and Midwest through Thursday. The pattern does turn wetter in the Midwest from Thursday through Saturday, so by next week we could see more flooding in the Missouri River. Central Texas stays on the light side for rainfall all week; thus, a new round of flooding in the Red and Arkansas does not look imminent."

Another useful link:

http://water.weather.gov/…

Rains Affecting New-Crop Winter Wheat Harvest/Quality

Heavy rains that battered northeast Colorado, northwest Kansas and southern Nebraska over the weekend will likely deteriorate winter wheat conditions further. In addition, heavy rains in Texas, Oklahoma, Ohio, Arkansas and Missouri the past few weeks have already caused harvest delays and quality downgrades in winter wheat.

The U.S. Wheat Associates June 5 harvest progress report said "Another week has passed with no harvesting in the southern SRW growing region due to continuing rain and extremely wet fields. The HRW wheat harvest is finally just starting in north Texas through central Oklahoma. Areas in south-central Texas have been ready to harvest for several weeks, but wet conditions are still keeping most combines out of the fields."

The USW report added, "There are concerns about the likely occurrence of the fungal disease fusarium (head scab) in the HRW crop from northern Texas to southern Nebraska because of the consistently cool, wet spring weather." Adding to that is the probability proteins may be lower and sprout damage will cause lower falling numbers which, depending on the severity, will cause mills to reject it.

The cash price reacted to the harvest delays and quality concerns, rising to 36 1/2 cents in the Kansas City July futures last week. SRW basis levels improved slightly and protein premiums for spot HRW moved higher. Premiums for 11 through 11.8 proteins are 5 cents stronger from one week ago; 12 through 12.8 proteins are 3 cents stronger with 13 proteins a 5 cent premium to 12's and 14 proteins a 7 cent premium to 13 proteins. Winter wheat basis usually wants to weaken once harvest starts, but until the harvest gets into full swing and there is a better handle on quality, quantity and proteins, the cash market will likely remain firm.

Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

Follow Mary on Twitter @MaryCKenn

(CZ/BAS)

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