Market Matters Blog

U.S. River Levels Improving

Mary Kennedy
By  Mary Kennedy , DTN Basis Analyst
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The Myrtle Grove Midstream Terminal Floating Elevator operated by Associated Terminals on the Mississippi transferring corn between barges and ocean vessels bound for foreign markets. (Photo courtesy of Russell Marine Group, New Orleans, Louisiana.)

OMAHA (DTN) -- Water levels on the nation's major rivers are slowly beginning to fall, resulting in better conditions for barge traffic, according to reports.

On Monday, May 3, the Ohio River at Cairo was at 35.3 feet, which is down from the level of 42.4 feet on April 28 (flood stage is 40 feet). It is expected to drop below 32 feet by midweek. The drop in high water has allowed barges to return to normal traffic speeds and has allowed empties to reach grain terminals that had been stalled from loading out grain.

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist Bryce Anderson said that the trend will be drier for the Ohio Valley during most of the week of May 4-8. "We will see rains of around 1.5 inches return over Mother's Day weekend, but then a drier pattern returns during the week of May 11-15. So, counting the drier trend that we have seen in the southeastern Midwest this week, we'll have a total of around 10 days with little if any rainfall in that part of the country," Anderson said.

Tom Russell, of Russell Marine Group, told DTN via email that the lower Mississippi River, including Baton Rouge and New Orleans, Louisiana, is still high and falling slowly. "River levels in the harbor are moderately high with a very slow-falling river. Due to high water, safety protocols are in place and water will be high enough to remain in place for the balance of May. Barge and ocean vessels operations have some minor delays due high water but moving OK."

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As of 8 a.m. Central Daylight Time on May 4, the Mississippi River at Baton Rouge was still sitting slightly above flood stage at 35.26 feet and is expected to hover there for the next week. Severe weather, including heavy rainfall, which moved through south Louisiana on April 27-28, caused Governor Bobby Jindal to declare a state of emergency because of the heavy damage and flooding caused by the storms. On May 4, the National Weather Service at New Orleans/Baton Rouge, Louisiana, continued a flood warning for the Mississippi River at Baton Rouge until Thursday morning. "Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast," the NWS noted.

The forecast for the river is that it will remain near 35.2 feet through Tuesday, May 5, and then begin slowly falling. Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred, along with anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to river forecasts will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs. Here is the real-time link to the river level at Baton Rouge and other info: http://goo.gl/…

The Waterways Action Plan for the Baton Rouge Annex states: "During a waterways crisis, a wide range of controls and actions are initiated from various involved parties, including industry and federal government agencies. In general, the industry will take action to reduce potential marine casualties during low- and high-water situations. During high-water conditions (25 feet and above Baton Rouge gauge), the industry may reduce tow sizes to allow more control over the tow and to more effectively utilize towboat horsepower. The Coast Guard and Army Corps of Engineers are also required to take specific and timely actions to aid in preventing marine casualties while facilitating commerce. Dredging operations by the USACE is a typical mission to reduce the risk in hazardous locations on the river."

The forecast for the upcoming week could bring more rain. Anderson said, "The Delta has similar forecast details as the Eastern Corn Belt -- dry through the weekend of May 2-3 and most of the following week, with rain of that 1.5-inch type developing Friday, May 8, through Mother's Day weekend. The Delta pattern differs from the Eastern Corn Belt in that this week will have more consistent showers, with another inch approximately by the end of the week."

Both the soybean and corn river basis were stronger the week ending May 1 along the Ohio River down to the Gulf. Better river conditions and higher export sales were reported for both old-crop corn and soybeans and were supportive to the basis levels. Barge freight rates also added to the basis strength as barge freight on the Lower Ohio River was down 40% from the prior week ending April 24. Barge freight at St. Louis was down 10% and the Cairo to Memphis corridor was down 30%.

Russell said, "The Deep South recorded one of the wettest-ever Aprils. Grain loading operations were greatly impacted and backed up, but most terminals are now getting in front of schedules."

Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

Follow Mary Kennedy on Twitter @MaryCKenn

(BAS/AG)

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