Market Matters Blog

Great Lakes Nearly 88% Covered in Ice

Mary Kennedy
By  Mary Kennedy , DTN Basis Analyst
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Great Lakes ice coverage as of March 1, 2015. (Graphic courtesy of NOAA)

OMAHA (DTN) -- Queen Elsa, the star of the Disney movie "Frozen," apparently paid a visit to the Great Lakes in February and left them nearly covered in ice.

As of Feb. 28, the combined Great Lakes were nearing last year's March 6 total of 92%. Three of the Great Lakes were up to 95% covered. According to the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL), Lake Erie measured 96% coverage, Lake Superior measured 95.3%, Lake Erie was 95.9%, and Lake Huron is at 95.82%. Lake Ontario, one of the deepest lakes compared to its surface area, has seen ice coverage ranging from 80% last week, to 69.3% on the March 1. Lake Michigan is currently at 72.2% ice coverage. The combined total of all the Great lakes makes this the second winter in a row that ice coverage exceeded 80%.

George Leshkevich, a physical scientist with the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory in Ann Arbor, Mich., was quoted in the Great Lakes and Seaway Shipping News saying that, "It's been pretty cold the last few weeks, so the lakes have more ice now than at this time last year." He said it was unusual to have two years in a row of extensive ice cover compared to previous years. He told the Duluth News Tribune that "We're seeing some real difficult shipping conditions on Lake Erie, with a lot of ridging in the central and south parts of the lake."

The severity of ice last year called for convoys of ice breakers to work through the ice, and many times the wind would close up the fresh path, causing ridges which had to "rammed" by the icebreaker. Overnight, the icebreaker would get caught in the ice and end up in the same position it was at 24 hours earlier. Leshkevich said that he traveled with the ice breakers in March 2014. "It was brutal. I had never seen it like that," he said. "A five-to-seven-day trip turned into 16 days."

According to the USDA GTR, United States and Canadian authorities have scheduled the beginning of 2015 navigation season for the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Seaway shipping system for March 27, a day earlier than last year. Last year, the first ship didn't pass through there until April 4 because of the severe ice coverage. A seaway spokesman said, "Last year when we opened, we saw limited activity given how expansive the ice cover was." He added it could adjust the opening date if necessary. "We will not open the season until it is safe to do so."

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The GLS Shipping News reported that Robert Lewis-Manning, president of the Canadian Shipowners Association, which represents ships that move through the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River, said he expects this year's situation to be "as bad or worse than it was last year." There is concern that the lack of ice breakers may be a problem this year if the ice becomes worse. While the U.S. Coast Guard has seven, it relied on help from Canada's two icebreakers that were sent from the Artic and may not be readily available this season.

As for the Port of Duluth, the ice breakers usually begin working on the port in early March. Last year, U.S. Coast Guard icebreaker Alder began operations March 4. The port's first oceangoing ship (saltie) of the 2014 commercial shipping season did not arrive until early May 2014. The first saltie of the season was escorted in a convoy of ice breakers in order to make it to the port safely. Thunder Bay's first saltie arrived in port on April 28. The arrival of the salties is the "official" start to the grain-shipping season.

WEST COAST PORTS RETURNING TO NORMAL?

Most of the 29 ports affected by the nine-month labor dispute between the Pacific Maritime Association (PMA) and the International Longshore and Workers Union (ILWU) are almost at full production levels, but still face backlogs as they continue to catch up. Work resumed in full on Feb. 21 when both parties reached a tentative settlement, which is scheduled to be ratified sometime in March, but many believe that the backlogs could take up to three months to clear.

"The challenge is going to be re-earning the trust of the shippers," Mark Hirzel, president of the Los Angeles Customs Brokers and Freight Forwarders Association, told the Long Beach Press-Telegram. "I know of a very large shipper that has moved all their cargo from Los Angeles and Long Beach and have sworn they're not coming back again," Hirzel said Friday. On Feb. 6, the Port of Long Beach sent DTN a statement by email in which Chief Executive Jon Slangerup stated that, "Business has already moved to other ports due to the congestion."

The Journal of Commerce reported that in a survey of 138 shippers, "65% plan to ship less cargo through U.S. West Coast ports this year and in 2016 after suffering from congestion delays. The percentage of shippers planning to permanently reroute some cargo away from the coast is nearly identical to the 66% of shippers who said the same thing when they were surveyed by JOC.com in mid-December."

A Midwest container broker told DTN via email, "We don't have a lot of options to bypass the West Coast for most of our Asia-bound exports. If I was a cotton shipper in Texas or a soybean or other shipper from Ohio or Missouri, I sure would be working hard on an East Coast option. Importers have better options as they have higher margins on finished goods, and the market for over 65% of consumer goods is east of the Mississippi."

He added that in his opinion, "This GOP congress should pass legislation making ocean ports equivalent with railroads and airports in terms of strategic importance and allowing federal intervention sooner than later." The law currently says they can only involve a federal mediator if both sides agree or wait for a strike/lockout and then invoke federal rules.

Fred Klose, executive director of the California Agricultural Export Council, told the Press-Telegram, "The trade group hasn't calculated the economic hit to farmers caused by the port troubles, but some exporters switched to air freight, which caused prices of exported produce to rise in Japan. Prices rocketed through the roof; Japan couldn't get the products that they needed, so there's a lot of air freight going on."

Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com
Follow Mary on Twitter @MaryCKenn

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Comments

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JEFF HANSON
3/15/2015 | 9:51 PM CDT
Great Question Don,but as I stated the media does not want to discuss the ENTIRE STORY!
Don Thompson
3/10/2015 | 9:36 AM CDT
With regard to increasing Antarctic ice, would anyone with knowledge care to answer why Antarctic ice is increasing and that the Antarctic surface ice increase is not considered an offset for Arctic polar ice loss? Please include references.
JEFF HANSON
3/9/2015 | 8:43 AM CDT
Why is it that we have to constantly hear from the media about the declining ice in the Arctic,but they fail to tell us about the INCREASING ice in the ANTARCTIC?They conveniently refuse to tell the complete story.The only time it is mentioned is when they have to as when the climate research ship gets stranded in the increasing ANTARCTIC ICE!
JEFF HANSON
3/6/2015 | 8:34 AM CST
You must be talking about the global warming that melted the glaciers.I too am thankful for that glacier melting! Speaking of ice, what is happening to the ice sheet in the ANTARCTIC?Is it still growing ever LARGER,just the opposite of the Arctic ice?
PAT KENNY
3/6/2015 | 6:51 AM CST
Im Thankful for global climate change.If we didnt have it there would be no Great Lakes.
TOM DRAPER
3/5/2015 | 9:00 PM CST
Thank you Bryce, that bulletin was helpful and interesting. While most of the country is much below normal, Alaska is much warmer than normal. It would be helpful if that type of info (the actual numbers) on global temps were as easy for us farmers to monitor as the markets are.
Bonnie Dukowitz
3/5/2015 | 2:38 PM CST
If one runs the numbers, would it not be 49 1/2 per cent of the time the averages are above normal and 49 1/2 percent below normal, except for the one out of a hundred? Then, of course, is the debate on statistics, written about in another blog.
Brandon Butler
3/5/2015 | 9:45 AM CST
If you deny climate change, you are an idiot. It always has, always will. Pollution is an inefficiency. Human innovation in economic terms abhors inefficiency. Those that use climate change to push an agenda in any other manner then to make change for the human condition better are inherently flawed, and I myself want to see everyone of them out in the open.
Bryce Anderson
3/5/2015 | 9:31 AM CST
Responding to Tom Draper---USDA's Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin issued March 3 has a summary of February 2015 temperatures for international stations--and it appears that western and central Asia joined northern Europe in the above-normal temperature trend. Every Russia station tracked was above normal--including St. Petersburg in the west with 5.1 deg C above normal and Yekaterinburg in the middle of the Eurasian continent with 5.8 deg C above normal. To put those into perspective on an everyday basis in the U.S.--the St. Petersburg departure from normal is 9.18 degrees Fahrenheit for the entire month and the Yekaterinburg temperature is 10.44 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. That is a huge leap to the warm side.
MONTE ARCHER
3/5/2015 | 8:48 AM CST
was it fossil fuel causing warming way back when or what? some records before cars.
Bonnie Dukowitz
3/5/2015 | 8:26 AM CST
-26 degrees here this A.M. Most people, I think, living in reality, are knowledgeable of and accept their duty to live within limits. This does not make them a denier. This makes them a realist. Why is it, with all of the records I read about, do the statistics seldom indicate the warmest, or coldest, or driest, or wettest? Bryce's contribution pertaining to Germany indicates only the sixth warmest Feb. since 1881. While 6.1 degrees F. is quite a bit, it is still not the warmest.
TOM DRAPER
3/4/2015 | 5:25 PM CST
Was the difference in temps in Asia near the difference in temps from Europe? Thanks again for your info.
Bryce Anderson
3/4/2015 | 3:28 PM CST
The NOAA report also depicts western and central Asia as below normal on temperatures for February. For Arctic sea ice, the volume was six percent below the 1981-2010 average and is the fourth-smallest volume area logged since satellite records began in 1979.
Bryce Anderson
3/4/2015 | 3:22 PM CST
Europe--particularly northern Europe--was very warm in February. The NOAA February Global Climate Report notes that "...many areas of Finland observed February temperatures six to eight degrees Celsius (11-14 Fahrenheit) above average, with some regions in the north more than nine deg C or 16 F above average. For central and northern Finland, it was the second warmest February in the 115-year period of record, behind only 1990. The February temperature for Norway was six degrees C (11 F) higher than the 1981-2010 average, the second warmest February on record, also behind 1990. The nationally-averaged temperature for Germany was 3.4 deg C (6.1 F) above the 1981-2010 average, marking the sixth warmest February since national records began in 1881."
TOM DRAPER
3/4/2015 | 12:40 PM CST
I was curious how the temps in Europe and Asia were, relative to the average this winter.
Jay Mcginnis
3/4/2015 | 9:39 AM CST
I don't know if you noticed Don but the world for climate deniers is very small, they don't understand that every year the worlds temperature is rising because where they live its cold. If you deny science you also seem to deny geography.
Bonnie Dukowitz
3/4/2015 | 8:15 AM CST
Only 20 some degrees below normal here this A.M. No fictional science book, just plain reality.
Don Thompson
3/3/2015 | 10:34 AM CST
Bonnie, Take a deep breath. Nobody is going to force science upon you.
Bonnie Dukowitz
3/3/2015 | 4:37 AM CST
Must be that global warming problem. Water must be freezing at a higher temperature these days.