Market Matters Blog

Early Ice on Lake Superior, PNW Traffic Improves

Mary Kennedy
By  Mary Kennedy , DTN Basis Analyst
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This satellite photo from Nov. 21 shows ice starting to form on Saginaw Bay. (Photo courtesy of MODIS-University of Wisconsin)

OMAHA (DTN) -- Michigan's Great Lakes started to see ice develop on them Nov. 15, the earliest in at least 40 years, according to the Daily Great Lakes and Seaway Shipping News on Nov. 25.

The daily shipping newsletter said the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory had reported that by Nov. 20, "Three of Michigan's Great Lakes had ice starting to form. Lake Superior and Lake Michigan were one-half percent ice covered, while Lake Huron had 1% ice. Lake Erie was not reporting any ice as of Nov. 20. Decent early season ice coverage records date back to 1973."

According to the GLERL, Nov. 21 "was the earliest date that all three Great Lakes already had ice since the better reporting of early season ice began. Lake Superior actually had ice forming on Nov. 15 of this year. That is the earliest ice on Lake Superior in the good data set. Lakes Superior, Michigan and Huron had ice 10 days earlier this year than last year. Lake Superior only had five and a half months without any ice on the lake."

In 2013, the ice began to form on Lake Superior Nov. 25 and the last trace of ice on the lake was not gone until June 5 this year, a new record for the lake.

The early ice means the shipping season is nearing an end.

According to the daily port reports from the Great Lakes and Seaway Shipping news, "Weather permitting, St Lawrence Seaway will close at 11:59 p.m. Dec. 24. The Welland Canal will close at 11:59 p.m. Dec. 26, and the Soo Locks will close at 11:59 p.m. Jan. 15, 2015. Vessels will be allowed to complete transits of the Montreal-Lake Ontario section and the Welland Canal until 4 p.m. on Dec 31."

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PNW RAIL TRAFFIC SLIGHTLY IMPROVED

In its weekly update to the Surface Transportation Board, Canadian Pacific said, "We indicated last week that overall congestion has improved in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) supply chain, in particular on the offline component of this corridor.

"That has continued this week, resulting in improved overall transit times. The weekly grain car cycle time for this traffic is also improving as transit times improve. This in turn should result in greater placements," stated CP.

Grain shuttle (or dedicated grain train) round trips for the PNW region improved to 1.7 versus 1.62 during the past month.

However, traffic heading east has experienced some problems because of the unprecedented snowfall affecting Buffalo. "With respect to eastern grain traffic," CP said, "we are experiencing longer cycle times for returning empty hopper cars due to off-line delays, partly as a function of the snow storms in Buffalo. We expect this to impact car cycles and order fulfillment next reporting week as well."

Outstanding car orders owed in North Dakota were at 2,211 versus 2,684 the prior week, and were 3.84 weeks late, according to CP. Cars owed in Minnesota rose to 500 versus 374 the prior week, and were 1.06 weeks late. Cars due in Montana were unchanged versus last week at 150, and were 3.67 weeks late.

Meanwhile, BNSF reported a mix of results last week in delivering cars.

Cars due in North Dakota from BNSF dropped to 3,145 versus 3,340 the prior week. Montana's total cars rose to 1,381 versus 1,112 the prior week. Minnesota's total rose to 891 cars versus 809 the prior week. Shuttle turns per month to the PNW improved slightly to 2.4 TPM versus the previous week of 2.3 TPM.

BNSF told the Surface Transportation Board in its recent update, "We repeat our earlier caution against drawing firm conclusions based on the absolute values reported in BNSF's report or across the various railroads that are also submitting data."

BNSF added, it "will also continue to engage frequently and substantively with our customers through direct conversations, and through broader communications and letters, customer forums, meetings and broadcasts to provide real-time information around our service challenges, our short-term and long-term plans to increase network velocity, and our progress against those plans, and to ensure we hear their perspectives and feedback."

To see all of the Class 1 railroad service updates to the STB on Nov. 26, go to http://goo.gl/…

Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

(ES/CZ)

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