Market Matters Blog

Acreage Arguments

I didn't know I was going to stir the pot.

On Friday morning, I sent out this Tweet: "Farmers: how likely are you to increase your soybean acreage next year? Working on quick article and would love some perspective!"

Really, it was a very quick story. Just a quick review of Informa's 2015 acreage estimates. We're about a quarter through corn harvest and halfway through bean harvest, so it's a little early to be putting much stock in these estimates. (If you're wondering, Informa pegged corn acreage down 3.1 million acres at 87.8 ma and soybean acreage up 4.3 ma at 88.5 ma.)

What I learned from Twitter is that, while it's early, there are plenty of opinions on just how much farmer will -- or won't -- increase soybean acreage. Some have really strong opinions -- they divided pretty evenly into the stick-to-the-rotation camp and all-about-economics camp -- but others are still weighing their options, concerned about seed and fertilizer prices.

Cory Ritter, a farmer in Blue Mound, Ill., argued it'd be tough for some farmers to increase soybean acres next year if they already made large increases in 2014.

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Kyle Wendland, who farms in a heavy corn-on-corn area near Fredericksburg, Iowa, thinks there are plenty of reasons, mostly economic, for farmers to increase soybean production. Given the revenue incentives, there's lots of land that could be planted to beans for the first time in a while.

Here's a smattering of the other responses I received (edited to make them easier to read, aka I removed the hastags and filled in missing words):

"Corn acres plummet next year at current price levels, so the default option is soybeans, lots and lots of soybeans. Ontario corn acres will be down another 30% next year, ditto across the US. Corn belt prices don't lie unless (there's) a winter surprise. Seed corn prices need to drop 25%, fertilizer will be much lower. There is a way out, but now, it's plant beans." -- Philip Shaw, @agridome, Ontario, Canada

"Major increase in double crop for us." -- Jason Goetz, @piratepride2, northeast North Carolina

"Unless fertilizer drops 25% or corn price rises to $4.50+, more beans everywhere except I states and Irrigation, the other I state." -- Stephen Ellis, @sellis1994, Virginia.

"Stay the same. May even go to more corn acres depending on if Bayer is approved for SDS treatment." Richard Mellencamp, @rmellenc

"Moving long term corn acres (3+ years) out of that rotation and into beans. Everything will go corn, corn, beans. We've been 2/3 corn to 1/3 beans since before I was born, '07 we went to 75-25. Going back to the 2/3 ratio." Bryan Boock, @BryanBoock, Bald Bluff, Ill.

"May go more corn, better local markets, better upside potential. I'm a little contrarian too." Adam Ramthun, @Adam_Ramthun, Manson, Iowa.

"In North Dakota most producers will increase acres by 25% or more." -- Kurt Weninger, @Weninger75,

So, what do you think? How likely are you to increase soybean acreage next year? What's the key consideration in your thought process?

(AG/CZ)

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Comments

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Ernie Flint
10/24/2014 | 8:03 AM CDT
Almost every year about this time farmers start thinking about which crops to plant the following year. The harvest surge of commodities complicates this process, sometimes causing growers to make premature plans. For now it's probably best to plan on sticking to rotation plans and make modifications later when true demand patterns begin to settle in.
SCOTT HENDRICKSON
10/22/2014 | 7:24 AM CDT
Up north where we have a $1.00/bu. plus basis on corn. I believe there will be much less corn. The basis on other crops are very wide as well, however with less bushels to handle the cost/acre is less.
Farmer Johnson
10/20/2014 | 2:50 PM CDT
Maybe some more bean acres, but not much. Have been in a non gmo bean program the last 5 years and am very thankful I stayed in all this time, the big guys can't get in since they closed the program off to anyone new a couple years ago and now they are crying because they want to know how to afford their big cash rents AND shiny new paint. We are going non gmo corn next year also, even though we aren't in a program, I am not a hippie/health nut, but I am so sick of paying Monsanto and everyone else tech fees that with a little extra work on my part can be money in my own seed bag!
Bonnie Dukowitz
10/19/2014 | 7:37 AM CDT
Any body going to plant hay? I think more will be returned to hay and grazing( where fence and cattle are available). The cattle can spread the fertilizer for a couple of years. When markets improve, a cash crop can then be utilized.
Raymond Simpkins
10/18/2014 | 8:13 PM CDT
We will plant about same acres of corn, a few less acres of beans,but half as much $5.00 wheat. I will plant oats on bean and wheat acres. Had $400.00 an acre profit on oats this year.Beans bar far will make the most money, but rotation will also make you money.