Market Matters Blog

Informa Pegs Bean Production Above 4 Billion Bushels

OMAHA (DTN) -- Private analytical firm Informa Economics sees U.S. soybean production climbing over 4 billion bushels with an average yield of 48.5 bushels per acre.

"This estimate adds to the bearish case for soybeans and soybean prices are trading lower in response to Informa's numbers," DTN Analyst Todd Hultman said.

Informa's production forecast is 104 million bushels higher than USDA's September estimate and its yield estimate is 1.9 bpa higher. No state average yield is expected to decline from September's estimates, Informa said.

Soybean planted acres will likely be reduced by 1.2 million acres in USDA's October report, but yield increases will "more than offset a potential production loss associated with the acreage reduction."

USDA will incorporate the Farm Services Agency's certified acreage data in its October Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates that will be released on Friday, October 10, at 11 a.m. CDT.

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Informa expects USDA to forecast corn production at 14.395 billion bushels. While that's unchanged from USDA's forecast in September, Informa sees USDA increasing the national average yield to 176.4 bpa, up 4.7 bpa from September, while lowering harvested acreage by 2.3 million acres to 81.6 ma.

"If true, the total production is the same as USDA's September estimate and probably less than the many in the market currently expect," Hultman said.

Illinois's average yield will cross the 200 bpa mark, Informa said, coming in at 206 bpa. That's 12 bpa higher than USDA's September estimate. Iowa corn yield is forecast at 191 bpa, up 6 bpa from USDA's last estimate.

Informa projects grain sorghum production at 412 mb, 19 mb lower than USDA's forecast in September, with an average yield of 68.2 bpa, one bushel larger than last month's estimate. Informa's analysis of FSA acreage shows an expected 371,000 acre decline in planted acres.

Informa also released its updated estimates on world numbers, but Hultman said there were no significant changes for corn or soybean supplies.

"For wheat, Informa expects roughly 4 million metric tons more world production than USDA's estimate for the Former Soviet Union (+1mmt), Europe (+2 mmt) and Argentina (+1mmt)," Hultman said. "On the other hand, they expect roughly 1.5 mmt less production for Australia than USDA estimates.

"Informa's estimates are bearish overall for wheat, and prices are showing little impact from Friday's report."

Katie Micik can be reached at Katie.micik@dtn.com

Follow Katie Micik on Twitter @KatieMDTN

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Comments

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Unknown
10/9/2014 | 12:00 AM CDT
It doesn't matter what their report or any other says ALL unpriced soys getting locked tight in the bins until the cash market gets back to $11 at the very least. I don't know anyone that can make it work under that .after all I raised them ,they are mine , and they aren't going anywhere for less . Until then I'm binning them . Maybe Informa should release a report on the minimum price it's gonna take to get them out of the farmers hand . Now wouldn't that be more useful interesting and and informative ? I challenge you for those numbers Informa . And if you could please have that out by Friday morning , after all you seem to know all the other magic numbers ?
Unknown
10/8/2014 | 11:27 PM CDT
Frost damage worse than expected in North Dakota beans running 20-25 or less early maturing varieties good 35-40 the longer day beans very poor
Pedro Sanchez
10/8/2014 | 8:44 AM CDT
Katie, based on Informa's history, are they more right than USDA or not on the ending yield per acre? It's one thing to just release numbers, and its another to have good data and release the numbers. I think the bean crop is going to be phenomenal. I just combined beans last weekend that averaged 50 bu/A on ground that got 16 inches of rain in one week in June, and then didn't rain hardly anything measurable from late June until late August. Oh they also got nipped by some frost too.
KATIE MICIK
10/6/2014 | 9:20 AM CDT
Hi Andrew. Informa publishes their history vs. USDA in every report. For reference: Over the last 10 years on corn, Informa's October estimates been higher than USDA's October forecasts 8 times, and lower twice. On soybeans, they've been higher 8 times, even twice, and never below.
JAMIE KOUBA
10/6/2014 | 12:29 AM CDT
Some day people will learn the difference between instant yield and average yield on their yield monitor, big mouths and a few good spots here and there has cost American farmers billions!!
andrew mohlman
10/3/2014 | 9:05 PM CDT
Has there ever been a report how wrong Informa has been in other years? seen there Inflated numbers before