Market Matters Blog
Pat Hill DTN Markets Editor

Thursday 12/24/09

Market Outlooks du Jour

An El Nino ahead means we should be getting some sales on the books .... corn is chopping sideways .... use modest rallies to make needed corn sales .... there are triangular patterns in corn charts -- we're finding a nice variety of comments from DTN Premium Service Providers today.

Here's a sampling:

CommStock

told subscribers, "We have never had below trendline yields in an El Nino year. That means that we are going to want to get more pricing done early next year assuming funds will be adding to commodity positions again based on inflation expectations. In terms of long term inflation, gold is cheap. It takes $2200/oz to equal its 1980 high adjusted for inflation. Gold is only half that price. The gold market hasn't gotten crazy enough to be a bubble yet... The spot corn contract isn't far away from the 4.00 strike price which is where the largest put open interest lies in corn. Closing above 4.00 Thursday would make most puts expire worthless."

Brock

advisers said, "The corn and soybean charts have a different appearance heading into the holidays. Corn is more stable from a technical perspective and is chopping sideways inside the security of the trading range it has occupied most of the fall. Soybeans, on the other hand, have given back a good portion of the fall rally over the past week and could be headed for a test of support at swing lows. For the March contract, that low is new $9.60 or another 50 cents down."

AgriVisor said, "The steep decline in corn prices eliminated any chance of our $4.35 March target from being hit soon, although it's still possible after the 7-week cycle bottoms. The developing picture should give us another opportunity to make a sale after the holidays, but we may have to adjust our target. If you need to price corn for delivery in the next 30 days, use any modest rally. Given the extent of the decline, we can again foresee the possibility that it will pay to again store commercially if storage rates are reasonable."

Doane

told clients, "The outside markets and weather helped boost prices on Wednesday, but futures continue to work in a fairly broad trading range. We expect buying support near $3.80, but if that level fails, it opens the door for further weakness to the $3.60 to $3.70 range. On the other hand a move up through $4.25 signals an upside break-out."

Top Farmer

said, "From a technical standpoint, all corn futures contracts have exhibited a rectangular chart pattern since late September. That is after the market made a move higher from early September. This pattern or triangle would suggest a breakout to the topside with a potential up move of over $4.50 in Mar. Is there enough fundamental news to push prices upward? Probably not at the moment, but if energy prices continue their rebound and if the dollar decides it wants to slide lower, which it did today, prices could quickly find an advancement on ideas that with light test weight and over 500 mil bu of corn in the field that the market may have to price in more uncertainty, or at least offer farmers an incentive to sell old crop and plant new crop acres."

Posted at 10:45AM CST 12/24/09 by Pat Hill
Comments (1)
Any comments from S-P recently Pat? With a corn target of 1.90-2.20, bean target of 5.50-6.50 and a wheat target of 3.50 or so, it would not surprise me if they were laying low. They missed this years prices not by just a little bit, but by absolute miles.
Posted by Peter Smith at 3:49PM CST 12/25/09
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