Market Matters Blog
Pat Hill DTN Markets Editor

Tuesday 11/03/09
Good: Corn Harvest Mid-December

With just over half the soybeans and just a quarter of the corn harvested by Nov. 1, there's a lot of work still ahead.

How quickly can it be done? U. of Illinois ag economist Darrel Good said the top speed in recent years resulted in a harvest of 16 percent of the corn crop in one week, and 20 to 24 percent of the soybeans.

If producers could work that fast on the remaining corn, it would still take nearly 5 weeks to finish up, depending on how fast the corn can be conditioned for storage and shipping, Good said.

Good said he thinks soybean harvest could also extend into December, depending on weather conditions after this week.

Good said he expects the Nov. 10 USDA crop production report to give an indication of the yield impacts of poor harvest conditions, while it will take longer to judge the impact of the poor quality of the corn. "Typically, the impact of corn quality on livestock feeding rates could be evaluated based on the December 1 inventory of corn, with higher feeding rates associated with poor quality. With more than the normal amount of the crop likely to be unharvested by December 1, the estimate of December 1 stocks may be less reliable than in a more normal year," Good stated. "The March 1 inventory estimate, then, becomes more important."

For soybeans, Good said the industry will be evaluating the relative meal and oil content. "The industry will have information on relative yields immediately, but the monthly Census Bureau estimates of soybean crush and product yield will reveal the overall impact," Good stated.

What all this means for prices, of course, is the bottom-line question. Good said the fact that corn and soybean futures have dropped sharply as harvest conditions have finally started to improve may be evidence that concerns about production and use have been overestimated. "However, this year's growing and harvest season weather conditions are outside the experience of modern history," Good said. "More time will be required to fully evaluate the impacts."

His comments are at http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/…

Corn - Percent Harvested Soybeans - Percent Harvested
State 2-Nov Yr ago 5-yr avg 2-Nov Yr ago 5-yr avg
IL 19 63 86 35 88 92
IN 28 72 75 63 90 89
IA 18 40 67 54 92 96
KS 52 69 86 55 70 78
MN 12 51 69 56 96 97
MO 49 64 85 33 57 72
NE 18 33 62 69 91 93
OH 24 68 60 82 94 86
SD 12 31 55 50 92 95
WI 13 41 51 29 92 85

Posted at 8:37AM CST 11/03/09 by Pat Hill
Comments (1)
Had the wheels rolling til 3am and the beans are finally done. I'm 4 weeks behind last years pace in southern MN. Time to start on corn....
Posted by Paul Beiser at 9:06AM CST 11/03/09
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