Tuesday's stocks report will tell us how many soybeans were used in the Mar-May (3rd quarter), so it will provide the starting point for key summer consumption.

The size of June 1 soybean stocks may provide some clues to how tight ending stocks turn out to be. [Graphic by Darin Newsom]

Average pre-report guesses have pegged the June 1 soybean stocks at 586 million bushels, while the last USDA supply and demand table put ending stocks at 110 m bu. Is it reasonable to expect summer usage of 476 m bu?

DTN Senior Analyst Darin Newsom is questioning that. To come in anywhere near 110 mb, we'd have to see this year's usage rate much higher than the past 5 year average, he said. In fact, the largest usage was in 2003-04, when summer consumption was 72.7 percent of the June 1 stocks.

But average fourth quarter usage over the last five years is only 61.6 percent.

If the 586 mbu is correct, and usage is 61.6 percent, we'd have an old crop ending stocks at 361 m bu -- how much of a shock would that be to the market on Tuesday?

An alternative, of course, is that the June 1 number will turn out to be well below the 586 m bu average guess -- which could happen, given the futures spreads, Newsom said.

And yet another alternative -- USDA could at some point revise earlier quarter usage, Newsom said.

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