Editors' Notebook

It's tempting this time of year to ease off a bit as pollination and flowering have started or are about to start, the last of the spraying and sidedressing are long done, and pastures are growing with moisture and sunshine.

But if the past two weeks' events are any sign, there's a steady need to be on guard and thinking about how to react to future events. Just consider the things that have had a direct effect on agriculture in the past few days.

The latest USDA report continues to have a bearish effect on grain prices, something our analysts have been warning about since before the first of the year. All signs have been pointing to a big crop, and while a mass willingness to hold grain in those newly-erected bins this spring helped prop prices, this week our DTN cash grain monitoring saw the first sign of "No Corn Needed Here" when an elevator briefly posted a $1.96 bid for #2 yellow corn.

As Senior Analyst Darin Newsom reported in his On the Market column Friday, there's just not a lot to be bullish about in commodities markets. The key point there isn't to state the obvious; it's to ask whether you're watching and are prepared for it.

We've also been talking about the eventuality of interest rate climbs for some time, certainly since we heard the pressure for that from key speakers at the DTN Ag Summit last December in Chicago. Special Correspondent Elizabeth Williams heard yet another strong call for rates to go up at the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank's Agricultural symposium this week. She noted that ag bankers know it's nearly a hanging offense to call for higher interest rates in a capital-intensive business like farming. But those same lenders are seeing the unintended consequences of long-term low interest rates on the overall economy and consumer behavior, and those consequences are worrisome.

Editor Emeritus and blogger Urban Lehner, in "An Urban's Rural View," also discussed the pressures on Fed chairwoman Yellen to nudge up interest rates sooner rather than later.

Being ready for that rise is critical.

As I write this, world leaders are trying to sort out the mess that is the apparent missile downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17. How events there, and the increase in hostilities in the Gaza Strip, play out in terms of markets, oil prices, global exports and general global economics is to be seen. But it certainly goes without saying that agriculture can and is likely to be affected, even if it's only a short-term jolt to markets.

A year or so ago an ag equipment company had a sales campaign around its customers being "ready" for what lies ahead. I was reminded of that as I looked out over the headlines running on our products this week.

So, at the risk of being trite, well, are you ready?

(SK)

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