An Urban's Rural View

"It's time for Japan to step up to the plate," U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman said the other day. He was reporting to Congress on the progress -- or, rather, lack of progress -- in the talks to set up a Trans-Pacific Partnership, a free-trade agreement between 12 Pacific Rim nations.

The roadblock is Japan. The TPP deal is supposed to be "ambitious," with every country putting every sector up for negotiation. Japan wants to exclude rice, beef, pork, wheat, dairy and sugar, continuing to protect hundreds of food and agriculture products. Japan is also at odds with the U.S. on removing barriers to its auto market.

As Froman said: "We can't have one country feeling entitled to take off the table and exclude vast areas of market access while the other countries are all putting on the table more ambitious offers."

That's good to hear but it may not be enough to assuage the fears of American ag-commodity groups. The TPP is a big part of the Obama administration's "pivot to Asia." The U.S. had hoped to wrap up the talks by the end of last year but the Japanese show no signs of budging. Could desperation for a deal lead our negotiators to let the Japanese off easy?

A congressman asked about the possibility of finishing the TPP without Japan. It's a little late for that. Moreover, a TPP agreement would be far less meaningful without Japan, America's most important military ally in Asia, the third largest economy in the world and a major importer of U.S. ag products.

As a Tokyo-based correspondent in the 1980s, I witnessed the tenacity and skill of Japan's trade negotiators. Even then they were especially stubborn in defending their protectionism when it came to agriculture.

They still are, and little wonder. With a population only 10% smaller than Russia's jammed into a territory the size of California, three quarters of it mountainous, Japan depends heavily on imports for food. It isn't eager to become more dependent.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is committed to economic reforms. He knows increased foreign competition would in the long run make Japanese farmers' more productive. But the short run promises only pain. And Abe's party is heavily dependent on farmers and their lobbyists for votes and financial support.

Atop this mountain of reasons for Japan to hang tough Congress has placed another. It has refused to give the administration "fast track" authority, which would limit Congress to a yes-no vote on an eventual deal. Without it, Congress remains free to amend the negotiators' handiwork. The lack of fast-track makes Japan's negotiators hesitate to offer their best terms; they know they will be pressed to give still more after Congress gets done amending.

Thus does Congressional skepticism feed a vicious circle in which that skepticism reinforces Japan's natural obduracy, which makes Congress even more skeptical. By singling Japan out for criticism, Froman hopes to reassure Congress while increasing the pressure on the Japanese.

Good luck. Neither Japan nor Congress is likely to budge soon. The stage is set for the TPP to take years to complete. Just as President Obama finally pushed through free-trade agreements with Panama, South Korea and Colombia that President Bush's team had negotiated a half-decade earlier, so might a TPP triumph have to wait for the next administration.

Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack spoke for American farmers and agribusiness people a few weeks ago when he said a bad TPP deal would be worse than no deal. Naturally Froman wants the Japanese to step up to the plate. Let's hope they do; let's hope they step up to it and hit a home run.

But to paraphrase the secretary, a Japanese half swing would be worse than no swing at all.

Urban Lehner

urbanity@hotmail.com

(ES/)

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