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Today's USDA report indicated a 3% drop in wheat acres to be planted in the United States in 2015, slightly below expectations. Surprises were seen in both spring wheat and durum, with 13 million acres of spring wheat expected to be planted, slightly below last year as well as below analysts' expectations, with the average pre-report estimates at 13.24 ma. Of this acreage, 12.1 ma is expected to be hard red spring wheat. States expected to boost acreage of spring wheat are Idaho (by 16.7%), Minnesota (3.3%) and North Dakota (.8%), while Montana is expected to reduce acres (minus 8.2%).

Analysts had expected durum acres to be higher for 2015, although the increase was less than expected. A total of 1.647 ma are expected, 17.8% above last year's acreage while below the average of 1.73 ma expected by analysts. A significant response to last year's higher prices is expected in the desert durum states. Arizona is expected to increase acres by 52,000 or 71% to 125,000 acres, while California is expected to increase by 25,000 acres or 71%, to 60,000 acres. Montana is expected to grow acres by 33% to 580,000 acres, while North Dakota is viewed to increase acres by 3.6% to 870,000 acres. Should this acreage be planted, this would be a three-year high although this will remain below the five-year average of 1.76 ma.

Canola acres are expected to dip 9% to 1.554 ma. Montana's acres are expected to drop 4.8% to 60,000 acres while North Dakota acres are expected to remain steady at 1.2 ma. A large adjustment is seen in Oklahoma, where acres are expected to drop 46% to 145,000 acres. Overall acreage would be a two-year low in the U.S. while above the five-year average of 1.465 ma.

Flaxseed acres in the U.S. are expected to jump 29% to 401,000 acres, with the largest jump of 95,000 acres to 370,000 acres expected in North Dakota. This acreage would be a five-year high for U.S. flax acres and remains well above the five-year average of 288,000 acres.

Lentil acres in the U.S. are expected to jump 37% to 385,000 acres. Montana's acreage is expected to increase 38.5% to 180,000 acres, while North Dakota's acres are expected to jump 73.3% to 130,000 acres.

Dry pea acres in the U.S. are expected to reach 1.005 ma, 7.5% higher than 2014. The largest gains are in Montana, up 8.6% to 570,000 acres, while North Dakota is expected to increase 11.3% to 295,000 acres.

Dry edible bean acres are expected to inch 1% higher to 1.7429 ma. Data is presented for 18 states which produce dry beans, with acres reported to increase in eight States, falling in nine states and remaining steady in one. North Dakota remains the largest producer with 610,000 acres expected this year, down 20,000 from last year.

Oat acres were reported to grow 8% to 2.931 ma, just slightly higher than the five-year average of 2.772 ma while holding above the historic low of 2.35 ma reached in 2011. The largest gains are seen in Minnesota, up 50,000 acres to 280,000 acres, North Dakota, where acres are expected to jump 15,000 acres to 250,000 acres and Wisconsin, where acres are expected to jump 20,000 acres to 275,000 acres.

Barley acres in the U.S. are expected to increase 10% to 3.258 ma. This is just slightly higher than the five-year average at 3.12 ma. More than half of this acreage is found in North Dakota and Montana, with Montana's acreage set to remain steady at 920,000 acres while North Dakota's acreage is set to increase 45% to 900,000 acres. The third largest producer is Idaho, with acres set to grow 4% to 580,000 acres.

Sunflower acres in the U.S. are expected to jump 14% to 1.786 ma, with a 27% increase in oilseed varieties offsetting a 23% drop in non-oil acreage. North Dakota is the largest producer, with 790,000 acres expected to be seeded, up 52% from year-ago acres.

It's interesting to note that today's report suggests that producers in North Dakota are expected to reduce 4% of the State's corn acreage, which is understandable, although the State's producers are also expected to reduce soybean acres by 2%, which seems counter to the current trend in the U.S. as well as the eastern Canadian prairies.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

(ES)

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