Canada Markets

A Look at Projected March 31 Grain Stocks

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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This chart looks at projected March 31 grain stocks in Canada based on Statistics Canada's Dec. 31 estimates and the five-year average disappearance in the January-through-March period. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

The next Statistics Canada report focusing on Canada's grain industry is the stocks of principal field crops report, due to be released May 6, which estimates stocks on-farm and in commercial storage as of March 31.

The attached chart looks at potential March 31 stocks based on the five-year average disappearance between January 1 and March 31, from the 2009/10 crop year to 2013/14.

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Given this analysis, the March 31 stocks of both lentils and dry peas will be the tightest relative to historical levels. Lentil stocks would be 373,000 tonnes, 62.5% below the five-year average of 995,200 t, while pea stocks were calculated at 823,000 t, which would be 46% below the five-year average of March 31 stocks at 1.529 million tonnes (Mt).

Of the commodities selected for this analysis, four others would see stocks below the five-year average. Barley stocks at 3.1 Mt would be 21% below the five-year average of 3.9 MT. Durum stocks, calculated at 3.050 Mt, would be 13% below the five-year average March stocks at 3.506 Mt. Canada's corn stocks at 6.121 Mt are 5% below the five-year average of 6.442 MT and oat stocks, at 1.781 Mt, would be 2.2% below the five-year average of 1.821 Mt.

The crops that could indicate a higher-than-average level of March 31 stocks shown in this study are canola, wheat and flax. Canola stocks as of March 31 were calculated at 7.470 Mt, 16.9% above the five-year average of 6.392 Mt. Flax stocks at March 31 would be 468,000 t or 20% above the five-year average of 389,200 t and wheat stocks (excluding durum) is calculated at 15.793 Mt, which is 19.1% above the five-year average of 13.257 Mt.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

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