Canada Markets

Canada's weaker dollar and record profits in the beef sector have failed to stop the slide in beef cattle numbers. Statistics Canada estimates total cattle numbers in Canada to be 11.915 million head as of Jan. 1 2015, a 2.5% drop from Jan. 1 2014.

That number is the lowest level seen since 1993 and also below some expectations. A recent estimate by the USDA pegged the Jan. 1 number in the 11.95 million to 12.060 million head range, as reported by the Canadian Cattlemen Magazine.

As seen on the attached chart, the total number of beef cattle on Canadian farms as of January 1 has fallen for the second year to 9.9948 million head. The number of beef cows has slipped 2% to 3.8244 million head, in decline since 2005 when the beef cow herd was reported at 5.2836 million head. By province, the largest year-over-year reductions in the cow herd are seen in Alberta (minus 3%), Saskatchewan (minus 2%), Manitoba (minus 1.4%) and British Columbia (minus 1.4%).

Heifers kept for replacement as of Jan. 1 also fell for a second year to a level which is 1.4% above the five-year average while calves under 1 year fell 2.8% from January 2014 to the lowest level in three years and a level which is 2.2% below the five-year average.

Statistics Canada stated there was 82,080 farms reporting cattle in Canada, down 1% from last year, a number which has fallen steadily in data going back to year 2000 when 124,125 farms were reported.

Also seen on the attached chart is hog numbers increasing for the second consecutive year. Hog numbers as of Jan. 1 increased 1.7% to 13.165 million head, the highest level in seven years. There were 7,000 farms reporting hogs as of Jan. 1, down .7% from last year. This number has been in steady decline in data going back to 2008 when 9,955 farms were reporting hogs.

Current projections by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada are for a total drop of 944,000 mt or 4.7% in the feed/waste/dockage category for wheat and coarse grains from 2013/14 to 2014/15, while this volume is expected to fall an additional 3.3% or 640,000 mt into 2015/16.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

(ES)

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