Canada Markets

Exports From Prairie Elevators Lag Year-Ago Volumes

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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While 2013/14 will be a year remembered for transportation issues, exports direct from prairie elevators in the first half of 2014/15 are behind the same period last year. Of the crops shown, only oats remains on a pace similar to last year. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

The Canadian Grain Commission's monthly Exports of Canadian grain and wheat flour report highlights a growing lag in exports direct from licensed prairie elevators as of the end of January. Total exports of the grains covered, as of the end of January which is the mid-point of the 2014/15 crop year, totaled 1.358 million metric tonnes, which compares to the 2.264 mmt reported for the same period in 2013/14.

The largest difference was seen in CWRS wheat, where 386,100 mt has been shipped this year as compared to 932,528 mt shipped in the first six months of the 2013/14 crop year. Other major differences were seen in durum, where 124,700 mt were shipped (275,986), barley at 93,800 mt (120,848 mt) and canola at 135,700 mt (287,746 mt), with year-ago volumes in brackets.

This is seen despite the relative strength of the U.S. dollar and current USDA import forecasts. For example, the February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates release by the USDA saw the forecast for spring wheat imports fall 10 million bushels (272,153 mt) to 70 mb (1.9 mmt), which is 7 mb or 9% below the volume of spring wheat imports in 2013/14. As well, the USDA's forecast for durum imports were also reduced by 10 mb in the latest supply and demand estimates, which leaves an expected volume of 55 mb to be imported this year, a volume which is 25% higher than year-ago volumes.

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In 2013/14, a total of 4.756 mmt was exported direct from prairie elevators for all grains reported by the CGC, 35% higher than the previous year and well above the 3.534 mmt average in the previous five years from 2008/09 to 2012/13.

In the Canadian Ag Coalition data to the end of week 25, or January 25, unfulfilled railcars to the USA/Mexico totaled 2,789 cars, or 15% of the total 18,403 unfulfilled cars to the end of week 25. This represents 25.7% of the total south-bound demand and is by far the highest failure rate of any of the six corridors monitored. The situation shows little improvement with only 27% of the cars order spotted in week 25 for what is termed non-bulk shipments, which includes shipments to USA/Mexico, Vancouver transload and Canadian domestic shipments. This percentage has fallen in each if the past two weeks.

Performance such as this provides little incentive to face the risks of selling into the U.S. market, which weighs further on Canada's export potential.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

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