Canada Markets

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's December edition of Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops supply and demand estimates were forced to address the higher-than-expected production seen for some of the larger crops estimated by Statistics Canada earlier this month.

In total, Canada's production of all principal field crops was reported at 79.663 million metric tonnes, 18% below last year but 4.7% higher than reported in November's supply and demand tables which were based on September estimates. In order to address this additional production, exports of all principal field crops were increased 1.33 mmt, or 2.9%; domestic use was increased 645,000 metric tonnes, or 1.6%; while ending stocks were increased 1.970 mmt, or 22.2%, since the November report.

Canada's higher-than-expected wheat production has resulted in a 200,000 mt boost in estimated exports to 18.2 mmt since the November report, while ending stocks are increased by 800,000 mt to 5 mmt. This level is almost 3 mmt below last year and also below the five-year average of 5.34 mmt. Cumulative exports to week 19 are reported at 6.395 mmt, a level which remains 255,400 mt behind the cumulative pace needed to meet this revised export target.

Statistics Canada's increased durum production from last month of 5.193 mmt was handled by increasing the forecast for both exports and ending stocks by 200,000 mt since their November estimates. Estimated exports are increased 200,000 mt to 4.9 mmt, slightly below last year's 5.073 mmt. Year-to-date licensed exports as of week 19 are reported at 2.095 mmt, well ahead of last year while remaining almost 305,000 mt ahead of the cumulative volume necessary to achieve the 4.9 mmt.

Canada's higher-than-expected canola production resulted in an 800,000 mt boost in export projections, a 100,000 mt boost in domestic usage projections along with a 550,000 mt increase in the ending stocks forecast to 1.450 mmt from the November estimates. These would seem like lofty goals and would result in yet another record set in export movement in a year with large global supplies.

Current cumulative canola exports totaled 3.244 mmt as of week 19 as of Dec. 14, roughly 117,500 mt below the cumulative volume needed to achieve the recently revised target of 9.2 mmt. As well, domestic crush is reported at 2.684 mmt, which is 85,000 mt behind the steady pace needed to achieve the 7.2 mmt target.

An increase in expected production of the major pulse and special crops resulted in a slightly higher forecast for special crop exports, domestic use as well as ending stocks. The overall carryout is forecast at 370,000 mt, a 41% drop from last year, with most special crop stocks expected to be drawn to very tight levels.

Canada 360 Poll

The most recent DTN 360 Poll asked if the services of a third-party grading service are utilized by your operation. It's interesting to note that responses suggested that those who did utilize grading services and those who did not were split roughly equal at one-third of respondents. A further 29% of responses suggested that they did not in the past but will consider utilizing a grading service this crop year.

Thanks to all who responded, this week's poll asks readers if they benchmark their farm's data with outside sources. This poll can be found on the lower right of your DTN Homepage.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

(ES)

© Copyright 2014 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.