Canada Markets

Hard red spring wheat yields in Canada were reported by Statistics Canada to average 44.2 bushels per acre in 2014, down 13.3% from the 51-bushel-per-acre average estimated in 2013, but still well above the 39.78 bpa average realized over the past 10 years and closer to the longer-term trend.

As seen on the attached chart, trendline yields are increasing, as shown by the 10-year linear trend (the solid black line) and the 20-year trend (the upward-sloping red line.)

A simple analysis utilizing the Forecast function within Excel would suggest a 44.5 bpa yield in 2015 based on the 20-year trend, while the 10-year trend would suggest an average yield of 46.8 bpa.

A similar analysis was done for the country's Canada prairie spring wheat production (not shown). Longer-term trends in CPS production are also increasing, but at a faster rate than seen in HRS. The average yield in Canada was reported at 58.3 bpa by Statistics Canada, 12.6% below the 66.7 bpa average realized in 2013, while still well above the 46.9 bpa 10-year average.

Once again, utilizing the Forecast function within Excel, forecasts for next year based on the 20-year trend is pegged at 57.5 bpa while is indicated at 64.9 bpa based on the trend of the past 10 years.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

(ES)

© Copyright 2014 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.