Canada Markets

Prairie Grain Shipments Remain Well Ahead

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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According to Canadian Grain Commission statistics, cumulative primary elevator shipments from the Prairie Provinces are well ahead of year-ago volumes as well as the 2010 through 2013 average. In total, nearly 1.9 million metric tonnes of grain has been shipped over and above 2013. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

A large carryover of grain from the 2013/14 crop year combined with mandated volumes of grain to be moved by the railroads on a weekly basis has resulted in aggressive movement off the prairies in the first 14 weeks of the crop year.

In total, 12.750 million metric tonnes have been shipped from the primary elevator system across the three Prairie Provinces as of week 14, or the week ending Nov. 9, almost 1.9 mmt above year-ago levels and 2.9 mmt above the 2010 to 2013 average. As seen on the attached chart, Manitoba's grain movement is slightly below year-ago levels, while significant gains have been made in both Saskatchewan and Alberta.

On a percentage basis, Alberta has gained the most from the increased movement, with Alberta's total grain volume shipped by primary elevators 30% higher than year-ago volumes, while Saskatchewan's shipments are 20.5% above year-ago volumes. When looking at shipments in these two provinces as a percentage of the entire volume moved from the prairies, the percentages of total shipments are viewed as being close to the percentage of the prairie crop produced in each province.

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The debate continues over whether the mandatory minimum volumes should be extended beyond the Nov. 30 date which marks the last day the current rule is in place. The majority of farm groups would prefer an extension of the rule.

Last week's DTN 360 poll asked whether the rules surrounding the minimum weekly volumes to be moved by the railways should be allowed to expire. A total of 27% of respondents suggested that they should be allowed to expire, with 6% suggesting that the government has achieved their objectives while 21% indicated that the mandate did not work, as the government failed to make data transparent and also failed to back the mandate with a meaningful penalty for non-performance. A majority of 68% suggested that the mandatory minimum volumes should not be allowed to expire and that the government has more to accomplish on this issue. The final 5% were undecided.

DTN 360 Poll

This week's poll asks what percentage of the 2014 crop has been priced in your operation. We thank you for your response on this and other polls, found on your DTN Home Page.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

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