Canada Markets

On two occasions since summer, Agriculture and Agri Food Canada has increased its forecast for Canada's 2014/15 wheat exports, while current data as of week 11 suggests that year-to-date exports of 4.126 mmt remains ahead of the pace needed to achieve the current wheat export target (excluding durum) of 18.5 mmt.

In July of this year, AAFC forecast 2014/15 wheat exports to reach 17.7 million metric tonnes in its monthly Grains and Oilseeds Supply and Disposition report, which was increased to 18 mmt in September and then again to 18.5 mmt in October. Note that this target includes either unlicensed exports, or those exports not originating from a licensed facility as well as exports of flour which are excluded from this analysis.

As seen on the attached chart, weekly export volumes from licensed facilities as shown by the green bars has slipped in the past two weeks (week 10 and 11, to the week ending Oct. 19) to levels well below the weekly volumes needed to achieve the 18.5 mmt target as shown by the blue line. Approximately 349,000 metric tonnes were needed this week to reach the weekly volume needed to meet the annual target, while 267,400 mt were shipped in week 11.

On a cumulative basis, the red line is above the black line, which compares that actual cumulative volume exported (red line) to the cumulative volume required (black line) in order to meet the 18.5 mmt target, which is just slightly higher that the volume moved last year. Note that cumulative volumes are measured against the secondary vertical axis on the right.

As of week 11, the cumulative volume of licensed exports was approximately 212,000 mt ahead of the cumulative pace needed, while unlicensed exports and exports of flour will add to this volume. A volume of 897,000 mt of unlicensed shipments were reported for the 2013/14 crop year, while the level of unlicensed shipments may be even higher in 2014/15 due to the cross-border relationships forged over the past year as a result of the lack of south-bound movement from the Prairies.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

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