Canada Markets

With Statistics Canada's next and final look at Canadian grain production slated for December 4, here is a historical look at the change in production reported between the September estimates and the final November estimates reported over the past five years (2009 to 2013).

As seen on the attached chart, Statistics Canada's Canadian grain production is understated on average in the September estimates to be revised higher in the final November estimate for almost all of the selected grains. Only barley has seen production fall on average in the November estimates over the past five years. At the same time, the difference between the September estimate of barley and the November estimate is closer than seen in any of the other crops shown, with the average percent change only .4% in the 2009 to 2013 period.

Of the other crops shown on the attached chart, the final estimate for the oat crop has averaged 2.7% higher than the September estimate over the past five years, while the final canola crop size has averaged 10.1% higher in the November estimate as compared to the earlier September estimate.

On a volume basis, not shown on the chart, Canada's all-wheat production was increased an average of 1.795 mmt in the final November estimate over the September estimate, while canola production was boosted by an average of 1.235 mmt in the final estimate. Also of interest is the frequency that production is boosted in the final report. Canada's spring wheat production, all-wheat production (including durum), canola and dry pea production was increased in the final November estimates in each of the five years from 2009 through to 2013.

Of the five years from 2009 through 2013, the smallest overall increase in production from the September report to the November report on a percentage basis was seen in 2012 when the average percent change in the nine crops shown was 2.61%. The largest percent change from September to November was seen one year later in 2013, when the record production seen in many crops caught many off guard, with the average percent change in production from September to November across the nine crops is seen at 12.23%.

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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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