Canada Markets

2014/15 Ending Stocks Could Return to Near 2013/14 Levels

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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This chart compares the 2012/13 carryout of Canadian grains and oilseeds of 8.951 million metric tonnes (red bar) to the trend in the January through July monthly estimates for 2013/14 (blue bars), the most recent 2013/14 estimated carryout (green bar) and the current forecast for 2014/15 (yellow bar). (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

If Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's supply and demand estimates hold true, the build-up of grain inventories resulting from the record Western Canada crop combined with logistical challenges in 2013/14 may soon be behind us, with most recent data showing a return to near 2012/13 inventory levels.

As seen on the attached chart, Canada's total grains and oilseeds carryout increased 8.962 million metric tonnes or 100% from the 8.951 mmt in 2012/13 to 17.913 mmt reported for 2013/14 (change from the red bar to the green bar) based on official Statistics Canada data. Meanwhile, recently released estimates for 2014/15 would indicate an 8.068 mmt or 45% drop to 9.845 mmt as of July 31 2015.

The blue bars show the trend in estimates made for the 2013/14 crop as reported in the January-through-July monthly reports from AAFC. The challenges of huge supplies, a cold winter combined with disappointing rail service resulted in the 2013/14 estimated carryout reaching a high of 22.810 mmt in March. During March, the government brought forth their Order in Council which created mandatory minimum shipping targets for the two railways, which resulted in increased movement and higher exports, with the estimated carryout lowered in each of the monthly reports from April through July.

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Official Statistics Canada data resulted in an even lower 2013/14 carryout of 17.913 mmt as seen by the green bar, as exports of almost all grains and oilseeds were boosted to levels higher than forecast by AAFC.

It's early to determine whether the current forecast is achievable, although early reports of this year's mixed bag of quality may hamper export activity due to reduced supplies of exportable quality. Cereals and oilseeds will face stiff competition in global markets with an abundance of global supplies expected to reduce trade volumes in grains.


DTN 360 Poll: What challenges will you face between now and the end of harvest? Please share your thoughts on DTN's 360 Poll found on your Home Page and also feel free to drop us a line.

Good luck with harvesting over the weekend and be safe on the farm!

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

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