Canada Markets

Statistics Canada's Crop Condition Assessment Program (CCAP), a satellite crop monitoring program, releases yield estimates for four prairie crops each year. The program generates numbers used as an "experimental indicator" only, but it's still interesting to compare this data with the official crop estimates, also released by Statistics Canada, the next of which is to be released on Thursday, Aug. 21.

The program resulted in an average yield for spring wheat of 40.6 bushels/acre for western Canada, generating a total production of 18.475 million metric tonnes. This yield compares to last year's final estimated yield of 53 bpa, while the 2009 through 2013 average is 43.76 bpa. Just weeks ago, the CWB crop tour of the prairies resulted in an average yield estimate of 43 bpa. Spring wheat production at 18.475 mmt compares to last year's final estimate of 27.239 mmt, while also below the five-year average of 20.021 mmt.

The reported durum yield released by CCAP was 36.6 bpa, leading to prairie production of 4.675 mmt. This is almost 12 bpa less than last year's 48.4 bpa final yield estimate. Interestingly, the recent CWB crop tour reported the average durum yield at 48 bpa, similar to last year and well above the value interpreted from satellite data. Total production at 4.675 mmt compares to the 6.504 met final estimate for 2013/14 and would be just slightly below the five-year average production. Commodity News Service reported an average trade estimate of 5 to 6 met of durum to be harvested in 2014.

Canola yield was reported at 34.5 bpa, creating total production of 14.344 mmt. This compares to last year's 40 bpa final estimated yield and would be slightly higher than the five-year average of 34.2 bpa. Total production is pegged at 14.344 mmt, which compares to the 17.960 mmt crop produced last year and is just slightly below the 14.425 mmt five-year average. The Commodity News Service poll suggested a higher range of 14.75 mmt to 15.2 mmt will be achieved, according to trade analysts.

Last of all, the CCAP program reported a calculated yield of 54.1 bpa for barley, leading to total production of 5.769 mmt. This estimated yield compares to last year's 71.7 bpa while would be below the 61.3 bpa five-year average. Production at 5.769 mmt would be just 56.4% of the 10.2 mmt crop produced last year, while would be well below the five-year average production of 8.659 mmt.

The attached chart shows how the satellite data compares to the actual final estimates, also released by Statistics Canada. The CCAP data proved to be a weak indicator in 2013, as seen by the blue and red bars on the attached chart. Actual yield data released in December proved to range from 13.1% to 22.5% higher than CCAP data for the four crops, with the durum crop showing the largest variance between the CCAP data and the final estimated yields released, as indicated by the blue bars. Total prairie production was also underestimated by the August satellite data, with actual production ranging from 20.4% to 24.6% higher than the CCAP data released in August.

The green and purple bars represent the average percent change seen between the CCAP satellite date and the final estimates over the past three years. While the gap has narrowed between the satellite estimates and the final estimates for yield and production from the previously discussed 2013 data, the satellite data continues to underestimate both yield and production as compared to the final estimates. Over the past three years, the use of satellite technology has provided the closest results for monitoring the canola crop of the four crops monitored. On average over the past three years, the final estimated canola yield was only 0.7% above the CCAP estimate (green bar) while the final three-year average production was 4% above the CCAP canola production level.

While it may be some time before the industry has the confidence of replacing the existing survey-based data with estimates derived from satellite data, strides are being made in satellite technology. NASA announced today that they will be launching their Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite this winter, which will monitor soil moisture in the top 2 inches of soil for the entire planet every two to three days. While it cannot be used down to an individual field level, it is suggested to provide the most complete soil moisture analysis available to-date.

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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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