With soybean futures at $16 and corn close to $8, growers with crops in the bin or in the ground can't help but feel they've won the lottery this year. But just as $1 million sweepstakes winners are hounded for handouts by luxury car dealers, distant relatives and charities with needy causes, this sudden wealth could vanish fast. Input inflation will take a chunk of change out of those would-be profits, especially for the 2009 crop. You may need prices to stay above $4 to $5 in Illinois, just to breakeven, and perhaps higher in lower yielding or risk prone zones.

Even the list price on seed corn will topple the $300 per bag barrier starting this fall, up about $95 to $100 per bag, or 35 percent on average, according to Monsanto officials who met with DTN and Progressive Farmer editors this week. They will be implementing a more aggressive plan to price seed based on the benefits that they think high technology conveys to farmers.

Monsanto claims its triple-stack hybrids may show a 12-13 bu. yield advantage versus conventional hybrids in much of the core Corn Belt, but in the one year out of three with drought, the advantage soared to a 35 bu. difference. Multiply those yields times higher corn prices, and the company thinks it deserves some extra profit sharing. For 2009, 76 percent of the company's corn sales will be triple stack, "so we think we can get the pricing right to show farmers the benefits," John Jansen, Monsanto's corn traits lead. "We can pass the red-faced test from the Panhandle of Texas to McLean County, Ill."

Keep in mind that Monsanto has been recycling 10 percent of its profits back into research and development for several decades, a heavy burden compared to many other businesses. With the corn boasting far more genes than humans, the science is expensive. Now what they've learned in corn traits can be transferred to other crops.

Fertilizer is another industry ready for its share of some of that $16 soybean, $8 corn action. If you've followed DTN's fertilizer coverage on our Farm Business page, you know wholesale DAP prices are running about $1050 per ton now, up from $400 a year ago. Prices jump $200 in a week, when they used to vary $10 a year.

Few analysts see much hope for P and K prices to moderate this year, largely because these mined products are limited in supply and controlled by a few large manufacturers. Unlike Monsanto, Pioneer, Syngenta, Dow and the rest of the seed industry, however, the global fertilizer industry still sells a product pretty much like they produced in 1960. What they are extracting from farmers in higher prices reflects little technological improvements; rather it's higher global prices pumping up demand. At least the seed industry can prove it deserves its handout. Does that make you feel any better? Let's just hope there's enough for everyone to share in 2009, and when prices eventually tank sometime later.

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