Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Grain Markets

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.94, up 31 cents for the week. Cash corn extended its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend through resistance at $3.84, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $4.86 through the low of $2.81. Given that weekly stochastics remain bullish, the NCI.X could now target the 67% retracement level of $4.18.

Corn (Old-crop): The September contract closed 36cts higher at $4.28 1/2. As expected, Sep corn tested its December 2014 high of $4.33 3/4 last week, posting a high of $4.30 3/4. Weekly stochastics remain bullish, indicating the contract should be able to extend its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. Using a simple measuring technique, a move through the December high would project an upside target near $5.13.

Corn (New-crop): The December contract closed 35.25cts higher at $4.37 1/4. The secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend strengthened last week, with Dec corn coming within a 1/4-cent of its December 2014 high of $4.40. Using a simple measuring technique, combining the possible double bottom formations near $3.63 and the interim high of $4.40, Dec corn could rally an additional 77 cents once it clears its previous high. If so, the target would be $5.17, in line with the major (long-term) 38.2% retracement level of $5.21.

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Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $9.98, up 34 cents for the week. The NSI.X extended its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend through initial resistance at $10.03. This price marks the 23.6% retracement level of the downtrend from $14.97 through the low of $8.50. Weekly stochastics remain bullish indicating a possible test of the 33% retracement level of $10.66.

Soybeans (old-crop): The August contract closed 40.50cts higher at $10.38 1/4 last week. The contract's secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend continues to strengthen, clearing initial resistance at $10.30 1/4. This price marks the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $12.72 1/2 through the low of $9.09 1/4. With the August to September futures spread inverted, reflecting a bullish commercial outlook, and weekly stochastics bullish the contract should extend this rally to at least a 50% retracement ($10.91) or possibly a 67% retracement ($11.51 1/2).

Soybeans (new-crop): The November contract closed 44.25cts higher at $10.30 1/4 last week. The secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend continues to strengthen, clearing initial resistance at $10.07 3/4. This price marks the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $12.32 through the low of $8.95 3/4. Given that the new-crop forward curve is inverted, reflecting a bullish commercial outlook, November beans could look to extend this uptrend to the 50% retracement level near $10.64 or the 67% retracement level of $11.20. Major resistance on the market's monthly chart is at the November high of $10.86 1/4.

Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $5.49, up 18 cents for the week. While the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up, the SR.X was unable to hold near its spike high of $5.80 closing back below resistance of $5.61 1/2. This price marks the 67% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $6.23 through the low of $4.38. Also, the close near last week's low of $5.47 sets up a potential island top pattern if the market comes under pressure early next week.

SRW Wheat: The September Chicago contract closed 22.50cts higher at $5.90 1/2. Sep Chicago wheat quickly extended its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend, posting a high of $6.17 1/2. This was a strong test of resistance near $6.15 3/4, the 50% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $7.62 through the low of $4.69 1/4. Despite the sell-off at the end of the week, stochastics remain bullish, indicating the contract should be able to test this resistance again over the coming weeks.

HRW Wheat: The September Kansas City contract closed 22.75cts higher at $5.91 3/4. The contract extended its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend beyond initial resistance near $6.02, the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $8.15 through the low of $4.95 1/2. Despite pulling back from its high ($6.11 1/2), Sep KC wheat still looks capable of testing its 50% retracement level of $6.55 1/4.

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